Cutting benefits isn't as simple as they claim

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One of the metrics underpinning the argument of those seeking to reduce the costs of welfare benefits in the UK is that the number of people living in households which receive more in payments from the government than they pay in taxes has been increasing. The figures are available in this spreadsheet. There are, of course, a number of assumptions and estimates involved in any figures of this nature – how much any given household pays in VAT, for instance, is not a figure for which robust actuals exist, and can only be projected from such data as does exist. Accepting such inevitable limitations on the accuracy of the figures, the statistics show that the percentage of people living in such households has indeed risen from 37% in 1977 to around 53.3% in 2024. The simplistic conclusion that benefits are therefore too generous and should be reduced doesn’t follow, however.

Whether we should really count the state pension as a welfare benefit at all is a controversial question. Theoretically, it is (like an occupational pension) paid for by contributions from employers and employees based on salary. It is true that those contributions are not enough to pay for the pensions, and it’s also true that they are not put in a long-term fund in the same way as occupational pensions, but those are deliberate decisions taken by government – the beneficiaries can hardly be blamed for those. In any event, what the same statistics show is that over the same period, close to half a century, the proportion of pensioner households in that category of receiving more than they pay has barely moved at all. Whilst it has varied between about 84% and 94%, the net change over the whole period has been from 92.4% in 1977 to 90.1% in 2024. The two messages from that are, firstly, that the overall increase for all households referred to above is not down to pensions, and secondly, that despite the increasing prevalence of occupational pensions, pensioner households remain highly dependant on the state pension. What it is not, is an argument for reducing pensions.

It follows that the increase in the proportion of people in households which are net recipients relates to people below pensionable age. Some of those people will be employed, others will not be. The popular belief seems to be that the problem is that more people are choosing not to work but to live, instead, on benefits paid for by others. The data doesn’t support that interpretation either. In 1977, the proportion of the population of working age in gainful employment was around 71%. Since then, it has varied as the economy has been through boom and bust cycles, but it reached a high of 76.5% in the 2010s, and for the purposes of comparison with the benefits figures being discussed here, it stood at 74.8% in 2024. In global terms, that puts the UK above the OECD average. The obvious conclusion is that the growth in the benefits bill is not a result of more people choosing not to work – the popular myth is just that, a myth. Certainly, the UK could be higher up the table, but the extent to which government action aimed primarily at cutting the bill can achieve that is doubtful.

Where does that leave us? Well, part of the issue is clearly the payment of ‘in-work benefits’: topping up inadequate wages. A subsidy, in other words, to employers who are underpaying their staff. One really good way of reducing that part of the benefits bill would be for the employers concerned to pay decent wages in the first place. A company which cannot pay its staff decent wages is a company which is not economically viable. In more general terms, reducing the benefits bill doesn’t start with cutting the budget, it starts with understanding why benefits are being paid and reducing the need for them. It’s a far more complex task, which the financial axemen seem unwilling to address. Simple cuts will reduce living standards. The extent to which there is scope simply to reduce the level of benefits being paid to individuals therefore depends, ultimately, on a judgement about the living standards which we, as a community, want to set for benefit recipients. That’s a much more difficult conversation, and one which politicians seem keen to avoid.

Building for peace, not war

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The idea that ‘Russia’ has learnt nothing from its catastrophic losses invading Ukraine, and will shortly be poised to take on the even greater challenge of a direct attack on a part of the European Union seems to be gaining ground almost daily. The Conservative and Labour parties seem equally in thrall to the threat of the Russian menace and equally determined to divert resources from welfare to armaments to prepare to meet the threat. In the process, they and what increasingly seem to be their puppet-masters in the armed forces and the weapons industries seem to be making such a war more, rather than less, likely.

Yesterday, we had a report of a speech from the head of the UK Army, laying out his views of what is needed. Needless to say, the head of the army wants to build up the army, but it was the detail which struck me. “Only armies seize and hold ground”, according to the pre-release of his speech. It’s impossible to argue with that, but the question which needs to be answered is why, exactly, we would want to ‘seize ground’ in the first place. The questions posed by his statement were compounded by his argument that the UK needs to be able to ‘strike deep’ and ‘defend forward’, which seems to mean developing the ability to strike at the enemy’s resources deep inside their own territory before those resources can be used against us. To me, it sounds a lot like an argument that the best defence is attack – and from the Kremlin’s perspective, it will surely sound even more so. What reaction should we expect from a state which feels itself thus threatened, after having watched the UK (and other governments) portray it as an imminent threat to themselves? Do we expect them to just wait, and watch that capability being built for use against them?

For the military (and, apparently, most UK politicians), the natural instinct is to build ever stronger armed forces to deter an attack by the enemy, but surely the deeper issue is how to avoid an attack. Maybe 'deterrence' has a role in that, but the extent to which that is so in that is arguable: up until the point at which war starts, it is impossible to know whether the lack of war is down to deterrence or simply a lack of rationale for going to war. (For example, whether merging the French and German economies into a single economic jurisdiction prevented the two countries from going to war again (one of the original objectives of the EEC) or whether they would never have gone to war anyway is an academic question, to which there can never be a definitive answer.) What we do know is that one of the most likely reasons for going to war against any potential adversary is the belief that 'they' intend to attack ‘us’ and need to be stopped before they can build the capability to do so successfully. But why are so few able to understand that exactly the same consideration plays out on the ‘other’ side as well?

Where are the political leaders prepared to make the argument that if we want to build for peace we should avoid sending the message that we are building for war? Building for war has, instead, become the default position of the UK establishment. And those who build for war are likely to find themselves, sooner or later, fighting that war.

May was a near record month for UK saving

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The UK Government accepted a record level of deposits from savers during the month of May, the second highest total on record for the month of May. Savers (mostly pension and life insurance funds as well as some wealthy individuals) clearly recognised that saving with the UK government is one of the safest places for their money, because the UK government’s ability to create extra money as and when required means that they can never lose their capital. That’s one way of presenting the figures, but it’s not the way that most of the media chose to present the same information. Instead, the near-universal response (here’s one example) was to treat it as a disastrous increase in government borrowing.

The disparity serves to underline the simple and unavoidable fact that what looks like a debt to one party will always look like an asset to the other. It also underlines the way in which those who want to deliberately constrain or reduce UK government expenditure will choose to interpret the facts in the way which they believe boosts their perception – to say nothing of boosting their own financial interests. The willingness to deposit such large sums with the government suggests that the savers aren’t really against what they describe as ‘government borrowing’ at all – why would they be, when they’re the main beneficiaries? It’s more that they’re against the government spending money on services instead of cutting taxes. And – surprise, surprise – those who benefit most from interest payments on government ‘borrowing’ would also have the most to gain from tax cuts.

For the rest of us, the problem isn’t government borrowing per se, it’s the way in which paying for that borrowing ends up funnelling money into fewer and fewer hands, concentrating wealth rather than spreading it. Any meaningful attempt to decrease inequality must inevitably mean that we have to look at the way in which wealth and income are distributed within the economy. Understanding that one person’s debt is another person’s asset is one small step towards that.

By-election significance isn't about competing brands of vanilla ice cream

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With the votes counted and the dust settling, Andy Burnham won yesterday’s Makerfield by-election by a large majority. To what extent this was a personal vote for the man rather than the party (‘vote Labour to get the Labour PM out’ is an unusual campaign strategy, to say the least) is not clear. I’ve always tended to the view that personalities don’t have a huge impact on election results at parliamentary level, but all rules have their exceptions and the circumstances and extent of coverage in this case may have enhanced the impact of the individual. If individuals really do make a difference, then it certainly helped that Reform Ltd chose a walking car-crash as their candidate, a man whose past comments made him an easy target. A cynic might even suggest that Farage would prefer Labour to stick with Starmer. Whatever, the fact is that Burnham is now in Westminster, and expectations are high that the starting gun will soon be fired on either a Labour leadership contest or else a coronation for the man from Manchester. Whatever gloss attaches to the Burnham name now may well be tarnished by the forthcoming mayoral by-election, which Reform Ltd have a reasonable chance of winning based on the local council elections, even if the bookies currently narrowly favour Labour; but maybe he’ll have staged his coup before that can happen.

The media are painting the Burnham bandwagon as a virtually unstoppable force, ushering in a new government and a new era. I’m not so sure. Burnham is undoubtedly a better communicator than the incumbent, although that isn’t exactly a high bar. The question is about how different he will be in practice. On that score, the omens are not good. He has already committed to maintaining the arbitrary fiscal rules drawn up by Rachel Reeves, and the appointment of a set of deeply conservative financial advisers to support him augurs badly. It looks as though the neoliberal agenda of continued wealth concentration is likely to continue unabated, and he is tying his own hands to do little more than tinker at the edges. Those sunlit uplands aren’t getting any closer. Burnham vs Starmer is politics as ice cream flavours, except the choice is limited to different brands of vanilla.

To my mind, the more significant, not to say worrying, by-election result yesterday was the one in Aberdeen South, where the SNP lost a seat to the Tories. The significance isn’t in the SNP losing, although that’s unwelcome, or even in the Tories winning, although that goes against the run of play. It is, rather, in the basis of the political upset, which is all about the oil and gas industry. It’s an issue that the SNP have not handled particularly well, but the outcome suggests that voters in Aberdeen have fallen for the snake oil being peddled by the Tories (as well as other parties of the ‘right’), namely the idea that we can both secure the planet’s future for coming generations and at the same time use all available resources with no concern for tomorrow. It isn’t just a problem in Aberdeen. Those who would deny the evidence of anthropogenic climate change have seen an opportunity to persuade voters to support them: after all, what’s not to like about a politician who tells you that you can do what you like today and you don’t need to worry about future consequences? Aided by a dumbed-down and lazy media which reports the debate as a “he said, she said” question rather than seeking out facts and scientific consensus, alongside echo-chamber social media, they are pushing against an open door.

Perhaps our end will come not with a bang or indeed any type of sudden event, but in the fug of a long drawn-out party.

There are limits to what can be controlled democratically

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If Knut had been Swiss rather than Danish, he could have called a referendum instead of having his courtiers carry his throne to the water’s edge. It wouldn’t have made any difference to the outcome, but at least he wouldn’t have got his feet wet demonstrating the limits of his authority. Some things are susceptible to human control, others less so; the difference isn’t always clear, especially when it comes to politics. On Sunday, the Swiss voted on a proposal to cap the country’s population at 10 million, a proposition which was defeated, but with a surprisingly high level of support (the result was 45%-55% on a 60% turnout). The proposition had nothing to do with the reproductive practices of the Swiss people, of course: it was really about immigration. Had the proposal been passed, the government would have found itself obliged to comply, primarily by limiting immigration. What they would have had to do if the Swiss started breeding at a rate which took the Swiss population not counting foreigners over the limit seems not to have been determined, although King Herod’s approach is the historical example which leaps to mind. Too unlikely a scenario to worry about, perhaps.

The figure of 10 million is entirely arbitrary, but the proposition was based on a fear that population growth would increase the pressure on housing etc. It’s a familiar refrain. When it comes to issues like housing, it’s inevitable that a larger population requires greater provision, and that’s true whether the growth is ‘natural’ or the result of immigration. The logical response to an increased demand for housing as a result of a growing population is to increase the housing stock. However, it seems that there are some who would prefer to evict ‘foreigners’ and deport them in order to allocate their homes to ‘natives’, even if they don’t always put it in those terms.

But ‘not always’ isn’t the same as ‘never’, and that brings us to Farage, who, at the weekend, announced his company’s new policy of evicting all foreign nationals from social housing, and deporting them if they can’t find private accommodation within three months. Evicting the unwanted from their homes and re-allocating those homes to others is not without historical precedent, as I’m sure Farage will be aware, although whether deportation is better or worse than being forced into formally demarcated ghettos is a question one might have hoped that we never had to debate. It was ‘interesting’ that, in his rant posing as an essay, Farage chose to make a simplistic distinction between ‘white British’ and ‘foreigners’. The implicit racism is both casual and revealing, and something which the use of language seeks to normalise.

Whether the UK has enough housing overall to serve all its population is a question which isn’t easy to answer; what is certain, though, is that there is a significant mismatch between the available type, location, and price of housing on the one hand and the needs of the current population on the other. I suspect the same is true in Switzerland. In either case, there’s something deeply irrational about setting out to adjust the demand (by controlling population numbers) rather than the supply (by building more homes). But then, rationality and racism have never made for good bedfellows.

Making the pie bigger isn't enough

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Politicians at both ends of the M4 place a great deal of emphasis on economic growth as a way of making us better off. It’s true, of course, that a bigger pie makes it possible for people to enjoy bigger slices – and making the pie bigger is a convenient way of avoiding questions about the way the pie is shared. Sometimes, vacuous phrases about rising tides lifting all boats are thrown into the debate, but it’s an analogy which isn’t as helpful as the initial image may appear. In the first place, only seaworthy boats are lifted – unseaworthy ones simply get inundated. Secondly, even for all the boats that are lifted, there is still a huge disparity between a superyacht and a dinghy, and rising tides do nothing to reduce that. Thirdly, at the risk of pushing the analogy too far, if the owner of the superyacht steals the sails and oars from the dinghy, the rising tide isn’t overly helpful to the guy in the dinghy.

The point is that whilst growth creates the potential to benefit all, the reality can be different: ignoring the question of distribution of benefit is akin to a belief in the magic of trickle-down economics. In the US, the proportion of GDP going to employees (through wages etc.) has fallen from a high of 58% in 1970 to around 51% today; over the same period, the proportion diverted into profit has risen to around 12%. There is a similar pattern in many other advanced economies, underlining the way in which the benefits of economic growth have been concentrated in fewer hands, leading to an increase in inequality. On the face of it, the UK is something of an outlier. According to this research, the proportions of GDP going to wages and profits have been remarkably stable in the UK, which might give us superficial hope that rising GDP will indeed benefit society more generally than is happening elsewhere.

As the research also makes clear, however, such high level statistics are hiding a pernicious growth in inequality. It’s not only the share of GDP going to ‘workers’ which matters, it’s also the way in which that is shared out amongst those workers. More detailed analysis shows an increasing remuneration gap between the lowest and highest paid workers, and that in turn leads to an increase in inequality, and means that an apparent increase in wealth is not being felt at all by many. It underlines the importance of governments avoiding a dependence on simplistic measures of ‘success’ such as overall GDP, or even average GDP per head. Growth per se is not enough. Even if growth is always possible and sustainable (which is a whole other, far from unimportant, question), we cannot ignore – as many politicians seem keen to do – the question of the way in which wealth and income are shared within society. Baking a bigger pie is not enough.

Tax is part of the cost of doing business, not an optional extra

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Politicians of various parties seem to be lining up to support a proposal from some in the hospitality sector to reduce the rate of VAT to 10%. There’s no doubt that the sector is currently facing a number of challenges, and it’s easy to see why governments and politicians may wish to aid the sector in order to maintain levels of employment. Tax cuts are probably the easiest way for governments to provide more support, since they can do little about the other costs being faced by those businesses. There is a problem, though, with the basic premise of the campaign, based around the slogan “VAT’s the problem”. The suggestion that ‘tax’ is causing the problem is fundamentally misleading, not to say dishonest: it owes more to neoliberal ideology than practical economics.

It may well be true that if businesses in a particular sector didn’t have to pay so much tax their profits would improve. But it would also be true that their profits would improve if they didn’t have to pay for raw materials, staff wages, or the costs of their premises. It’s not one element of their costs which causes the problem, it is the fact that they are unable to sell enough of their ‘product’ at a sufficiently high price to cover all their operating costs and make a profit. In terms of market economics, any business in such a position is technically non-viable. The most basic law of economics, the one that almost everyone knows, is the law of supply and demand, and that law tells us that if competition is so intense that prices cannot be raised to a viable level, then there is an oversupply in the market. And the natural economic solution to that is to reduce the supply – capitalism requires some companies to fail in order that price levels can rise. It’s another example of supporters of capitalism failing to understand how capitalism is supposed to work.

There may well be social and economic reasons why politicians may not consider that a desirable option, and there’s nothing inherently ‘wrong’ with taking a decision to find a way of delivering subsidies. We should not pretend, though, that a tax cut in such circumstances is somehow not a subsidy. Reducing government revenue in order to cut the costs of private businesses is always going to be a subsidy, however it’s presented. VAT, in particular, is supposed to be added to the bill after the business has set the price based on its costs and profit margin: theoretically, it isn’t paid by the business at all, but by the customer. Reducing it, whilst keeping the final price constant, simply allows the businesses to underprice their product by treating the cash they are no longer handing over to HMRC as part of the revenue generated from their business activity. 

The biggest danger of all is that politicians caught up in the demand for a VAT cut end up reinforcing the neoliberal narrative that tax is in some way an ‘extra’ cost rather than part of the financial environment in which businesses have to operate.

Are productivity and efficiency always good things?

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Will Hayward drew attention this week to the rather defeatist comment by a Reform Ltd MS that “we are not very good in Wales at being efficient in running things”. There’s a sense in which we should not be overly surprised at the comment; it is, after all, in line with the general view held by the unionist parties that Wales is too small and too poor, and Welsh people too stupid, to ever govern ourselves, and that we should defer to our betters in London. For a Reform Ltd politician to express similar views is on a par with the breaking news that the Pope is a Catholic; all he’s done is to repeat a weary old trope in rather more blunt language than that to which we are accustomed.

Leaving that aside, though, the thing that piqued my interest is the inherent assumption that ‘efficiency’ is always and necessarily a good thing anyway. It may seem blindingly obvious, and be a generally applicable rule, that it’s better to achieve a given goal with fewer resources; but being blindingly obvious doesn’t make something true. I’ve been around long enough to know that what’s obvious isn’t always true and what’s true isn’t always obvious. Whilst they’re not quite the same thing, there is a clear overlap between efficiency and productivity, and coincidentally the new Welsh Government announced this week that it will be setting a national productivity target aimed at closing the gap between Wales and the rest of the UK. The announcement itself makes it clear that many of the details are yet to be determined, so it’s impossible to predict the likelihood of success at this stage. The encouraging thing, though, is that it looks as if the target is to be set and monitored at a macro level, rather than being a micro-economic target for individual businesses or sectors.

That difference between the micro level and the macro level is an important one, and brings us back to the question of whether improved efficiency is always a good thing. For any individual business, the ability to produce the same output with, say, half the input in terms of labour is a huge financial advantage, and unquestionably a benefit for that business. But for the economy as a whole, producing the same output with half the input could simply leave half the workforce unemployed, an outcome which few would welcome – even the businesses which have achieved the savings, who could find that half their potential customers can no longer afford their products. Whether reducing the number employed in existing enterprises is a good thing or a bad thing thus depends on whether – or to what extent – those freed up resources can be employed on other useful activities. That is a lot harder to plan for and achieve, and increased use of AI in the drive for efficiency / productivity gains may make it more so.

It also opens up other questions, particularly about how the benefits of improved productivity / efficiency are distributed (increased wages, reduced working hours or increased profits, for example). Changing that distribution goes beyond the current powers of the Senedd, unfortunately. It would, though, be good to see, amongst the yet-to-be-announced metrics which will be used to measure success, an attempt to at least monitor who is benefitting, rather than simply assume that an overall average increase in productivity is sufficient in itself. Sometimes, a simplistic bottom line can obfuscate rather than clarify meaningful progress.

Identifying the right problem

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There was a report of an opinion poll in the i paper a few days ago on the issue of paying benefits to young people who are not in employment, education or training. The article itself is behind a paywall, but the data is available in Table 53 in this report. The headline figure was that 56% of those questioned believed that all benefits should be stopped for such people. As one might expect, the numbers vary between supporters of different parties, with those supporting parties of ‘the right’ most likely to support the proposition. Asked in isolation, it’s easy to see why so many might support that (why, the implication is, should anyone not seen to be ‘contributing’ expect to be supported?), but I wonder whether the implications have been thought through by those responding to the survey.

For people in that ‘NEET’ category, benefits are likely to be their only direct source of income; removing it implies that those 56% of respondents are quite happy for the young people to go without food, clothing or shelter. In reality, of course, many (but by no means all) in that category will be living with their parents, who would presumably be expected to continue paying the living costs for their adult offspring. The key economic fact to note, though, is that the withdrawal of benefits from anyone means that someone, somewhere, has their own spending power reduced. Maybe it’s the individuals directly affected, maybe it’s their parents who are obliged to divert money from their own discretionary expenditure. In economic terms, it matters little to the basic conclusion: somebody’s spending power would be reduced, with a consequent reduction in overall demand. In fact, there’s a more general point which this underlines – if a government cuts spending or increases taxation in pursuit of the alleged nirvana of a balanced budget, someone, somewhere must always have their spending power reduced.

The political question is that the ‘who’ and the ‘where’ are ultimately choices being made by politicians. The claims that ‘benefits’ or ‘pensions’ are unaffordable are not the result of some iron-clad law of economics; they are the direct result of political choices as to who should pay for the entirely arbitrary need to pursue a balanced budget. Worse, they are framed in such a way as to encourage us to believe that governments have no choice but to act to reduce such expenditure, and that the impact of doing so will be felt by ‘someone else’. But if we ask a rather different question, it’s easy enough to expose the lie. That question is, in simple terms, ‘are there enough resources in the UK to provide every citizen with a decent standard of living?’ The answer, unquestionably, is ‘yes, of course there are’. That we ‘choose’ not to use those resources to achieve that aim is down to ideology, not economics.

None of that, of course, provides an answer to the problem of so-called NEETs – but then neither does simply cutting their benefits. The only ‘problem’ that that solves is how we continue to ensure that resources are concentrated in fewer and fewer hands. But that concentration of wealth is the much bigger economic problem.

Curiosity isn't enough to justify an inquiry

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There is no rule or mechanism which guarantees that members of a political party committed to the pursuit of a cause rather than merely power will be any more honest or less venal than mere careerists; nor that they will be any more resistant to temptation when it is waved in front of their noses. But, somehow, we all want to believe that ‘our’ side are more inherently honest and genuine than everybody else. As a result, the conviction, last week, of the former CEO of the SNP (and ex-husband of the former First Minister) somehow comes as more of a shock, to say nothing of disappointment, than the secret £5 million payment to Farage, or a whole host of financial scandals relating to other politicians in recent years.

Having been Treasurer of a party for five years in the 1980s, I’ll admit that I’m somewhat mystified as to how it can have happened. The level of scrutiny to which accounts were submitted back then was intense, and I distinctly remember lengthy meetings examining the budgets line by line looking for potential savings for a party which was perpetually cash-strapped. Things are different now: the advent of devolution has transformed the finances of parties which are now at the centre of events rather than eternally on the periphery. But still… The defence that the auditors had signed off the accounts looks rather weak to me. A thorough audit would surely have checked that expenditure (for large items as a minimum) was properly authorised and had an appropriate ‘paper’ trail in terms of invoices and receipts, but it’s hard to believe that to have been the case in relation to some of the items on the list. I find myself with a number of serious unanswered questions.

It’s true, as some of the SNP’s opponents have suggested, that the guilty plea means that those questions will never be aired in open court. That’s a pity – as much for the members of the party, who are the victims here, as for the wider public – but the idea that that justifies some sort of public inquiry is a strange one. I can see the attraction to the SNP’s opponents of demanding such an inquiry; keeping the scandal running for as long as possible has its political attractions for parties which have been unable to make a serious dent in the SNP’s popularity. But public inquiries are not cheap, and if one were to be set up for every resolved crime that left the curious with some unanswered questions, there would be an awful lot more public inquiries being held. Good news for the lawyers, I suppose, but probably not for the rest of us.

Whether the initial investigation was politically-motivated or not isn’t entirely clear – but the way it was handled, with a ‘murder tent’ outside the house and so forth, certainly looked a lot like a political act. Even the stated cause for the investigation, that money had been raised for one purpose and then spent on another, looked more than a little dodgy; the idea that specific pounds and pennies would somehow be locked away in a special account doesn’t look like a realistic expectation. It seems, though, that they found a real crime, even if it wasn’t quite the one they were looking for. It’s a disappointment, of course – but to return to my starting point, there is no rule which guarantees honesty, even amongst those apparently committed to a cause. Clay feet can appear even where they’re least expected.

Five million unanswered questions

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Labour’s decision to report the alleged hacking of Farage’s phone to the police is a gimmick, of course. Given the reluctance / inability (delete as applicable) of the boys in blue to investigate a whole host of crimes, diverting resources to a crime which the ‘victim’ himself has not seen fit to report is an unlikely prospect. But if the objective is to keep the story about Farage’s receipt of a £5 million gift running for a day or two longer, it is at least an effective gimmick. It’s reasonable to suppose that the attempt by Farage to turn the story into one about an illegal action performed against him was itself an attempt to divert attention from the £5 million, a generous gift which he continues to maintain is an entirely personal matter between friends.

But the ‘hacking’ story raises more questions as well. Farage is claiming that the ‘hacking’ was the result of a spear-phishing exercise. Assuming that to be true, then it wasn’t really what most of us would call ‘hacking’ at all: it means that he was conned into giving the attackers access to his phone and/or data. Still a crime, of course, just not quite the one which is being alleged. We’ve not been told what the messages were which induced him to part with the access codes to his data, but the possibility that revealing them might just be embarrassing could be one explanation for his coyness in involving the appropriate authorities. We also don’t know who the cyber-security experts were who have concluded that it was a “hostile state actor” behind the plot but, again, those experts seem not to have been the ones employed by the British state precisely to counter such actions against politicians and others.

It’s easy to see why, tactically, Farage might want to blame Russia. Given the suggestions that he and his party are too friendly by far towards Putin, putting some distance between him and the Kremlin looks like a reasonable plan. But hold on a moment – let’s look at this from the other side. Why exactly would Russia want to bring down Farage (and it’s reasonable to suppose that to be the aim of the leak of information)? Looked at from the Kremlin, the best chance of getting a more Russia-friendly government in the UK at the next General Election is through getting Reform Ltd elected, and all the conventional wisdom suggests that is more likely under Farage than under any alternative leader. That must surely be as obvious to Putin as it is to me, so why sabotage the campaign?

There are still far too many unanswered questions about that mysterious £5 million and the events surrounding it.

Irrelevance may be infectious

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If there is a single UK politician who should understand what political irrelevance looks and feels like, it is surely ex-PM Tony Blair, and it’s tempting to dismiss his critique of the way the UK is becoming irrelevant under the leadership of his own party on that basis. That would, though, miss the point, because for all the robust rebuttals of that critique by current-day Labour figures, the whole episode serves to emphasise not the difference between the Blair generation and the Starmer generation but the intrinsic similarities.

It is clear, for instance, that both what Blair had to say and what Starmer has been doing are predicated on an idea of the UK as a great global power, with influence way beyond its size and economic importance to the world. It’s a sort of post-imperial delusion on the part of people who can’t quite get their heads around the idea of the UK as a medium-sized offshore European archipelago, and expect the rest of the world to somehow take them at their own evaluation of their relevance.

Some have been surprised at the similarity between the responses of Burnham and Streeting, with their insistence that the idea of inequality is missing from Blair’s response. But both men, like Blair himself, are wedded to the neoliberal economic creed that ‘the markets’ can solve every problem and that governments must do, fiscally, whatever they interpret the bond markets as demanding. Increasing inequality is not only baked into that creed, it is its main driving force. In his failure to pretend that he thinks it important, Blair is simply being more honest than either. There is no great ‘battle of ideas’ going on between the Labour leadership hopefuls, just a beauty contest between two over-ambitious wannabe Messiahs. Irrelevant is quite an apt description.

Holes, spades, and generous gifts

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The first law of holes states that when you’re in one, you should stop digging. Like most laws, rules, regulations and probably gravity itself, it’s one that Farage seems to think somehow doesn’t apply to him. The more answers he gives about that dodgy donation of £5 million, the more difficult questions arise. He claims that he didn’t use any part of the £5 million to buy the £1.4 million house that he bought in 2024, and that he actually purchased that out of his £1.5 million fee for appearing on I’m a Celebrity. It didn’t take a lot of financial forensics for journalists to demonstrate that that wasn’t exactly true – that money remained in the account into which it was paid.

I almost hesitate to say this, but that might be a little unfair. Someone who suddenly finds himself £1.5 million richer can afford to spend £1.5 million more than he would otherwise have been able to spend: it doesn’t have to be the exact same pounds and pennies or come from the same account. That concept is one with which most of us will probably be familiar, albeit on a much smaller scale. A windfall of £50 might do nicely for a meal out, we might think, even if that £50 is initially used to pay a bill and the meal out comes a month or so later.

The problem for Farage in using that explanation is that what is true for £1.5 million is also true for £5 million, and adds to the need for him to explain that other little windfall. Whether it was for his security (as he originally claimed) or a reward for campaigning for Brexit, as he is now claiming, matters little (apparently, being paid handsomely for delivering a result which might benefit a donor only counts as proper corruption if the quid pro quo was spelled out in advance – a rather curious, not to say large, loophole). The bottom line is that a politician paid £5 million by someone (who just might benefit by rather more than that if said politician reaches a position of power) gives that politician an extra £5 million of spending power. Whether Farage did or did not spend it on security (and the change of rationale rather suggests that he cannot demonstrate that he did) is irrelevant to that basic fact – he had an extra £5 million to spend, unconditionally according to him, on whatever he wanted. And, on the basis of his latest attempt to ‘explain’ the basis of the gift, it was directly related to his political activity over a lengthy period. I find it hard to believe that even the UK could really dream up a set of rules which means that rewarding a politician for taking a particular political position is somehow a non-declarable gift, but I guess the investigation will tell us the answer to that.

In the meantime, if he didn’t own the company, surely someone would be trying to relieve him of his spade.

Principles and virtue-signalling

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Principled stands are all very well, and something for which politicians are generally happy to be credited. Until, that is, the cost of taking such a stand is perceived to outweigh the advantages gained. We saw it in Starmer’s ‘principled stand’ against the US bombing campaign in Iran, which was principled until he decided that allowing the US to use UK bases for ‘purely defensive’ bombing raids (an oxymoron if ever there was one) was a less costly option. And he’s never explained exactly how the purpose and target of each bombing raid was verified to determine whether it met the unspecified criteria for being ‘purely defensive’ – the suspicion remains that the ‘principled stand’ amounted to making a grand statement and then turning a blind eye.

Starmer also took a ‘principled stand’ over Ukraine, backing strong sanctions against unwarranted Russian aggression. Until unwarranted US aggression against Iran caused a potential lack of jet fuel and diesel, at which point the principles got lost. Principles which last only until those espousing them conclude that they are costing themselves too much aren’t really principles at all; they’re more about virtue-signalling.

Whether sanctions actually achieve very much is another question entirely. The theory is that by denying a country access to goods from outside the country and denying that country access to markets for its own goods, then pressure is placed on the economy to such an extent that the government can no longer sustain itself and must collapse/ surrender/ stop a war (delete as applicable). The truth of the proposition depends on three assumptions. The first is that the country being sanctioned cannot sustain itself entirely on the basis of its own resources and productive capacity, the second is the neoliberal economic dogma that the limiting factor on any government’s actions is the amount of money available to it, and the third is that all other countries buy into the sanctions regime.

In the case of Russia, none of those three assumptions are valid. Russia may not have the climate to grow certain crops, which might limit the population’s dietary choices (although after decades of Soviet rule, that might not be as novel as one might think), but the country’s resources are vast and varied, and they have the people and skills to exploit them. As long as they don’t need foreign currency, the idea that the money supply is somehow limited is a myth anyway: the constraint on government action is the availability of real resources, not the means of exchange to buy them. And in any event, there are significant other powers prepared to ignore the sanctions regime. Sanctions have the ring of the old adage, which runs ‘something must be done, this is something, we must do this’.

The conclusion – that sanctions are largely symbolic statements by those applying them, and little more than irritations to those to whom they are applied – is depressing. Failure to recognise that fact is even more so – it simply encourages people to continue to pursue a failed path. There is no quick or easy solution. Universal adherence to agreed international law is our only hope in the long term, but achieving it is another matter entirely. Perhaps we never will, but that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t try. In the meantime, pretend principles achieve little except to divert attention from the real issue.

The five stages of Messiahdom

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Political parties finding themselves in difficulty whilst retaining an absolute conviction that they are right about everything have a tendency to start to believe in the idea of a Messiah. If only, the story goes, we had a different leader, all would be well. That’s the first stage of messiahdom.

The second stage comes when they alight upon the Chosen One. He (and it’s invariably a ‘he’) might not be immediately available: perhaps he’s overseas or at the very least stuck in political exile in the frozen and inhospitable north. These are simply obstacles to be overcome.

The third stage is when the Chosen One himself starts to believe that he really is the Messiah, the one the whole world has been waiting for, and the only one who can put right those things which need to be put right and lead his party to the sunlit uplands. That seems to be about the point at which the Labour Party has now arrived.

The fourth stage is the anointment of the new leader, and it’s the trickiest of all. It’s far from clear at this point whether Labour will overcome this particular hurdle. There will be those who lay obstacles in his route, such as re-opening a debate which makes it harder to persuade ordinary people outside the party to vote for him, whilst smiling sweetly and uttering welcoming words. Maybe his silvery northern tongue will win round the doubters, both inside the party membership and amongst the wider electorate, maybe not. I have a suspicion that at least some will feel more than a little p****d off at being taken for granted in the power games being played with and around them.

Whether the Labour Party gets through stage 4 or not might be an open question, but if they do, then stage 5 has a degree of inevitability about it. This is when it becomes clear that he’s not the Messiah at all, just a very naughty boy. Heroes almost invariably turn out to have feet of clay. The chances that a change of leadership will solve the problems of the Labour Party are slim; the historical record (particularly over the past decade) does not exactly convince me that switching out the person at the top will change any of the fundamentals, even if it may deliver a short term boost based more on hope than experience. A glib tongue and a chameleon-like ability to change position are no substitute for substance, and a few years spent in the political wilderness do not necessarily equip someone to succeed in the top job.

The potential for doing more harm than good is high, particularly if he falls off the horse at the next hurdle. Still, as spectator sports go, it’s better than a lot of politics.

Vigilantes are the problem, not the solution

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It must have been sometime in the 1950s that I used to watch Mr Pastry on the television, and I’m sure that I remember one episode in which he wanted to be a ‘village auntie’; but my memory also told me that Mr Pastry was Clive Dunn rather than Richard Hearne, so maybe it was a different programme. Anyway, the plot line was that our hero had completely failed to understand what a vigilante was. The media and commentators seem to be suffering from a similar lack of understanding every time that they refer to the dreaded ‘bond vigilantes’ who are apparently forcing interest rates up because they’re worried that the Labour government might in any way deviate from the Tory financial straightjacket rectitude to which they’ve been stupid enough to commit themselves.

It’s not true; the participants in the bond markets really don’t give a damn about what government policy is, and are not trying (as true vigilantes would) to exercise extra-judicial powers over perceived miscreants. They care only about extracting maximum benefit for themselves, and see the widespread belief that a change in government policy might make UK bonds a riskier prospect as an opportunity to line their own pockets. It’s a form of self-fulfilling prophecy. Those paying the interest might well want a stable low level, but that isn't necessarily true of those receiving it.

That doesn’t mean that paying higher interest rates on government ‘debt’ isn’t a potential problem for the public finances. The extent of that problem is somewhat exaggerated though: part of the ‘debt’ is held by the government-owned Bank of England, so the government is paying interest to itself in an exercise which is more about book-keeping than debt management, and the higher interest rates only apply to new ‘debt’, not to the money which has been ‘borrowed’ previously. It’s also true that around 30% of the 'debt' is owed to banks, financial institutions and governments outside the UK, but that is offset by the fact that governments outside the UK also owe large amounts (almost £900 billion in the case of the US alone) to UK banks and financial institutions, and to the UK government itself, and interest comes into the UK as well as flowing out.

The bigger problem with the conventional analysis is that it looks at only one side of the equation, to wit the financial impact on government finances. But we need to look at the other side of the equation – after all, if one body is paying interest, someone else is receiving it, and those recipients are the holders of those bonds, and they are mostly based in the UK. They include a small number of wealthy individuals who directly buy bonds and a much larger number of indirect holders, mostly current and future pensioners. And since the benefit received through interest payments is proportional to the amount of bonds held, the benefits will flow disproportionately to the most well-off. In short, government bonds are a mechanism by which wealth is transferred from the many to the few (Richard Murphy has a fuller explanation of that here), and it is the few (or their representatives) who are manipulating the markets to maximise that flow.

Bowing to the perceived pressure from ‘the markets’ is outsourcing financial policy to those to whom wealth is being transferred. Understanding that is a key first step to debating alternatives – but not one that the political representatives of the few, whether Tory, Labour, Reform UK or whatever, are keen on promoting.

The problem is with the product, not the salesman

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If the election results last week exposed just how much trouble Labour is in, the party’s reaction since then serves only to emphasise the fact. Whilst replacing a failed leader might not, in itself, be an altogether bad idea, believing that doing so will, in itself, ‘solve’ the problems facing the party is a triumph for hope over experience. Even more so when the ‘vision’ of all those being touted as replacements differs little from that of the incumbent. The problem is far more deep-seated than that, and it’s only due to an inadequate and unrepresentative electoral system coupled with a Tory collapse that Starmer was regarded as a ‘winner’ for getting a huge majority of seats in 2024 on 34% of the votes, whilst his predecessor, Jeremy Corbyn, was regarded as a dismal failure for gaining far fewer seats in 2017 on 40% of the vote. Which was the best salesman?

Whether history is made by the actions of prominent individuals or by what Boris Johnson called the ‘movement of the herd’ is one of those unresolved questions to which there is never a definitive answer. Mao, as I recall, once said that ‘the people are the motive force in the making of world history’; but then he also said something about ‘power springing from the barrel of a gun’, so take your pick of apposite quotations. I’ve long suspected that the truth lies somewhere between the two. Leaders come to the fore at a time and in a context which is set by longer term changes. The right person who happens to be in the right place at the right time can articulate things in a way which makes it look like he or she is driving change, but there are almost certainly others who could and would have fulfilled the role. I tend to support Ledru-Rollin with his "There go the people. I must follow them, for I am their leader", or whatever variation on the alleged quote you might prefer.

Whatever, the panicked masses of the Labour Party seem to have convinced themselves that, if only X were in charge, the party’s fortunes would be transformed. They might be in with a marginally better chance if they could agree on a name to insert instead of the X. I can think of few worse outcomes for them at this stage than for an MP to stand down to allow Andy Burnham to contest a parliamentary seat and then lose it (along with the Manchester mayoralty) to the Greens or Reform, but it’s an outcome which they don’t even appear able to foresee. The bottom line, though, is that whoever replaces the X, the party is still stuck in a context where they are expecting any new leader to do a better job of repackaging and selling the existing product rather than improving the product. It’s not an approach which has exactly been universally successful in the world of business. Maybe politics is different. Maybe not.

Electoral change might be boring, but that doesn't mean it's unimportant

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With the dust settling on last week’s Senedd election, it’s opportune to review how well the new system of voting actually worked. No doubt the academics are already hard at work on a detailed analysis of the results and the factors which led people to vote as they did. One obvious weakness is that the system ended up favouring the largest parties, encouraging a degree of polarisation between them, just as first past the post has long done. And for all the talk of ‘every vote counts’, clearly some votes did not count; the lack of an opportunity to express a second or third choice meant that the votes of those whose first choice was rapidly eliminated ultimately counted for nothing. And then there’s the argument about voting for a party rather than a person – I’m personally not convinced of that, although many others are, because years of campaigning told me that most people vote for the party anyway. Overall, it’s produced a more proportional result than the previous system, but it’s not ideal.

Some have criticised Labour and Plaid for introducing the new system, describing it as some sort of stitch-up. Criticism of Labour is fair, but I’m not convinced that the same is true of Plaid. Multi-party politics with no overall majority requires compromise and agreement, and had Plaid not agreed to support Labour on this detail, we probably wouldn’t have had the other changes to the Senedd. With a super-majority required for such a change, it looked like a worthwhile compromise – provided it doesn’t become the norm for the longer term.

Most supporters of Proportional Representation tend to favour the Single Transferable Vote. Looking at the new Senedd, that’s true of Plaid, the Lib Dems, and the Greens – but those three parties together do not have the votes for a supermajority on this issue, and Labour and the Tories are generally opposed. Enter, stage right, Reform Ltd. It’s always hard to know what the company’s policy is on any issue because it keeps changing, but Farage (the ultimate determiner of all policies, as the owner and proprietor) has in the past been supportive of a move to STV. Whether he still supports that (given how well his company did in England under FPTP) is an open question, but if he does, there is a clear supermajority in favour in the new Senedd. It creates a potential opportunity for a change with long-lasting effect.

It’s clearly not going to be the top priority for the incoming government. There are far more urgent priorities in areas such as health and education, where visible change is urgently required. Electoral Reform is top of few people’s lists. I hope, though, that the new government will find time to discuss this with other parties – yes, including Reform Ltd – during the current Senedd term, while the door might be at least ajar. Thursday’s results were historic, there is no doubt about that. But historic isn’t the same as irreversible. Sometimes phoenixes do rise out of the ashes, and the Labour and Conservative parties in Wales might not be quite as moribund as they currently appear to be.

Gift or grift?

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The owner and proprietor of Reform Ltd claims that no rules were broken by the £5 million gift made to him prior to his decision to stand for election again in 2024. The gift, he claims, was entirely personal and not related to politics at all. It’s hard to believe that a gift of that magnitude to pay for security had no impact on the decision to stand for election of a man who had been reluctant to do so for reasons of security. The gift was described as ‘unconditional’, with no requirement to spend it on security, and it’s also hard to believe that a sudden windfall of £5 million had no impact on the spending of the recipient on things other than security, even if only by leaving him more of his own money. Given that Sir Starmer was obliged to declare donations for new suits and spectacles, it’s hard to see how the same rules allow undeclared donations of £5 million. Perhaps the various bodies looking into the donation will reach the same conclusion as Farage, although many might think that that would tell us more about the rules than about the gift or the individuals involved.

The donor’s generosity didn’t stop with the party’s owner and proprietor; he also became the largest individual donor in political history with his largesse to Reform Ltd. There’s no corruption involved, apparently, because he didn’t ask for anything in return. That’s probably true – but he didn’t need to. The Reform Ltd stance on cryptocurrency was already well-established. He doesn’t need the party to change any policies for his investment to pay off, he just needs the party to win power. And therein lies a gaping hole in the rules concerning donations to political parties. Giving donations to parties to buy a favourable change in policy is unlawful; giving donations to a party in an attempt to buy an electoral victory which will allow it to implement an already-adopted favourable policy is entirely within the rules.

The difference between gift and grift turns out to be a lot smaller and harder to define than many might think. What we need isn’t one or more enquiries into whether or not rules have been broken, but a change in the rules themselves. Most particularly, we need a cap on the amount anyone can give a political party – or an individual politician – in any financial year. And it needs to be a low cap – a figure in thousands rather than tens of thousands, let alone millions.

Reform Ltd are using a curious form of logic

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Maybe, as some have suggested, the proposal by Reform Ltd to site internment camps for migrants in constituencies which vote for the Green Party is just a wind-up, an attempt to provoke outrage. Maybe, maybe not. There’s certainly something very Trumpian about it, aping the way violent immigration enforcement is used differentially in the US depending on whether a particular state did or did not vote for Trump. Some have suggested that it might be illegal, but if the UK ever got to the stage of electing a majority Reform Ltd government, such a government would have no trouble legislating to remove any legal obstacles. There is certainly something very ‘un-British’ about it, curiously enough from an overtly British/English nationalist party.

Perhaps we’ll never get there. After all, the ability of Reform UK to actually implement such a policy depends on a party led by Farage not imploding for another three years, and then winning a majority of seats in the Westminster parliament. History suggests that the former is unlikely, and the latter depends on the former, but we shouldn’t be complacent. I suspect that they actually mean what they say. Whether they would be able, as they claim, to hold detainees for only a short time before deporting them is an open question. It sounds simple, but in practical terms I suspect that people would need to be held for months rather than weeks, and the total number of detainees at any one time would be very much higher than they are claiming as a result.

Leaving aside the questions of both practicality and probability, the logic, even on their own terms, is a little ‘fuzzy’ to say the least. Setting up the camps is presented as a consequence of voting for open borders, and therefore something which those who vote for open borders should welcome, but that’s a complete logical reversal. Setting up camps is actually a consequence of voting for closed borders and a mass deportation policy; those who should welcome the camps are those who vote to set them up (Reform Ltd voters), not those who vote against them. On the other hand, and they probably haven’t worked this through themselves yet, they’ve actually given us a clear way of stopping their deportation policy in its tracks. They have guaranteed that no Reform Ltd-voting constituency will get a camp, so if every constituency elects a Reform Ltd MP, there would be nowhere to site a single camp. It’s not an action I’d encourage, of course – but ‘Vote Reform to stop Reform’ has a certain ring to it. Logic, like arithmetic, isn't exactly one of their strengths.

It's the vision that matters

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The demands and counter-demands about costings from the various parties contesting the Senedd elections are not just a red herring, they’re a diversion from the substance of the debate between the parties. The media may be provoking this, but the parties seem to be falling in. There are three good reasons why no party will ever convince another party (or any objective observer) that their costings are ‘right’.

Firstly, any set of costings is necessarily based on estimates and assumptions – it cannot be otherwise. Those estimates and assumptions will always be open to challenge – with no shared basis, there can never be a meeting of minds.

Secondly, one of the few things which seems certain about next week’s results is that no party will have an overall majority. Whether we have a coalition government or a minority government, the party leading that government will not be able to get its full programme through the Senedd without negotiation and compromise with one or other parties. No programme, no matter how ‘fully costed’ it is, will survive intact as a result.

Thirdly, even if there were to be a party with an overall majority, able to attempt to implement its programme in full, circumstances will always conspire to obstruct it. The generals say that no battle plan ever survives first contact with the enemy – much the same is true when a manifesto meets the reality of government.

That doesn’t make manifestoes irrelevant, and it doesn’t invalidate making at least an attempt to show how they might be implementable, but debating the financial minutiae diverts attention from the one thing that manifestoes should give us – a sense of the priorities and values of the varying parties. Reducing the debate to the level of ‘I’ll show you mine if you’ll show me yours’, or arguing abut the credentials and eminence of the economists who’ve given the numbers a detached nod tells us nothing about the various parties’ visions for Wales. Or, rather more worryingly, perhaps it actually speaks volumes about their visions.

Enforced poverty is no answer

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The political parties of the neoliberal right (Reform Ltd, the Tories, and Labour), aided and abetted by the majority of the media, continue to push their agenda of cutting the bill for benefits and pensions. The current most popular rationale which they give is to divert money into armaments, but if it wasn’t that, it would be something else. It’s easier to sell the anti-benefits message if it can be presented as a binary choice, even if that presentation is a complete nonsense.

It may even be a popular policy, given that the debate around benefits has been slowly and insidiously polarised over recent years in such a way that many people have come to believe that anyone receiving benefits is a freeloader on the efforts of the rest of us. They just don't think it will affect them. The turkeys have been sold on the argument that promoting the virtues of stuffing somehow means that they will be spared the Christmas chop.

There is, of course, no doubt that some savings can be made. Complex rules could be simplified to reduce administration costs, benefit fraud could be targeted (although the costs of doing that will eat into any savings, and targeting tax fraud and evasion would be a more productive use of resources). But such savings are on the margins: the only real way of generating large financial savings from the benefits bill is to cut the amounts being paid. Reducing payments is one approach, cutting eligibility is another; but whichever approach is chosen, one inescapable consequence is that the spending power of some real people in the real economy would be reduced. How many, and by how much, are debateable questions; the underlying fact of a reduction in spending power is not.

Even if it were possible to identify accurately and precisely which people are ‘choosing’ not to work as opposed to which are unable to (and the reality is that that is very difficult to do – real people, in real families, in real communities have a complex mix of circumstances which mostly lie in grey areas rather than black and white ones), the bottom line is that the number of them is much lower than popular sentiment might suggest. Savings on the scale being demanded by some require a much less targeted approach under which many more people lose access to funds. They will include older people, sick people, children – are we really going to push them into poverty in an attempt to starve someone in the household into a probably non-existent job?

‘Cutting the benefits bill’ looks to be an easy task if we look only at the number of pounds and pennies being spent by government. It looks very different, though, if we start to look at the people involved. It challenges our perceptions of the sort of society we are or want to be. Yes, of course, we want those who can do so to make a contribution, but is being employed really the only way of doing that – and is enforced poverty for those who don’t really the best answer? For the neoliberals – for whom everything boils down to pounds and pennies – the answers might be in the affirmative; for those who believe that there is more to life and the human experience than money and economics, jettisoning that narrow approach and starting with people is the essential first step.

Experience of failure is not the killer qualification as which some see it

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Experience is an odd commodity. As a generalization, most of us might expect that someone who has a lot of experience of doing something will be better at it than someone who has none, but it doesn’t always work that way. One of the reasons why some people end up doing the same job for many, many years is that they really aren’t very good at it. Peter’s Principle (“In a hierarchy individuals tend to rise to their levels of incompetence”) applies. I once interviewed someone for a job who claimed to have twenty years’ experience, but when we questioned him it turned out that he really had one year’s experience repeated twenty times. Experience is not only about duration – it’s also about depth and breadth. And experience of repeated failure without learning from mistakes made is a handicap, not a qualification.

The First Minister claimed this week that Labour should stay in power because it is the only party with previous governing experience in Wales. Even if it didn’t effectively amount to an argument that Labour should therefore enjoy perpetual power (because no-one will ever be able to gain that experience if we accept the argument), it’s a curious claim to make. In the first place, whilst some of the lessons learned from experience can be passed on after a fashion, ‘experience’ itself is personal to the experiencer. In the second place, ‘parties’ don’t have experience of government, it’s the ministers (who are often in any post for only a comparatively short time) who do; parties, as institutions, tend not to be very good at passing lessons on, which is one of the reasons why new generations of politicians often repeat the mistakes of the past. In the third place, many of those within Labour who possess this magical experience are either standing down in this election, or else at risk of defeat anyway. In the fourth place, whilst not everything that the Labour Government has done can fairly be described as a disaster (whatever their opponents might say), and there are often mitigating arguments based on relative incomes, ages and health, the objective evidence surely means that there are very few who would look at the last 27 years and see nothing but outstanding success; experience of failure may not be quite the qualification as which the First Minister apparently sees it. Finally, the institution which is supposed to be the guardian and repository of experience and its lessons isn’t the party, or even the ministers, but the apolitical civil service – which will still be there after May 7 to serve the new ministers.

I’m not sure that “desperate” – the headline accusation lobbed by Plaid – is an entirely fair description of the tactic by Labour. The subtext is surely a much more powerful condemnation: Inability to comprehend any alternative approach, complete failure to understand that voters in Wales want ‘change’ (even if they don’t all want the same change), and a general weariness with the apparent inertia of our political systems and structures. Our best hope for the outcome on 7 May is a government composed solely of independence-supporting parties. It’s hard to envisage any government which includes the attitudes currently being displayed by Labour having the vision and the energy to do anything sufficiently different.

Are the parties fighting the last war?

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It’s difficult to know how seriously we should treat any individual opinion poll. Different organisations use different methods, particularly when it comes to ‘weighting’ to try and ensure that the sample is representative. But when multiple polls by different organisations over a lengthy period show broadly consistent trends, it’s reasonable to suppose that they are telling us something about what is happening. In the case of the upcoming Senedd elections, I’m still struggling to believe how well in the one case, and how badly in the other, Reform Ltd and the Labour Party are doing. Whilst I can’t simply ignore the data-driven evidence in front of us, I’ll admit that, for someone who spent decades campaigning door to door, the extent and speed of the change is something I’m struggling to understand and accept. It somehow doesn't 'feel' right, and evidence which contradicts experience is always a difficult thing.

Once we get to a situation where there are two obvious front-runners, it’s probably inevitable that those two will start trying to ‘squeeze’ the votes of the other parties by presenting the outcome as a binary choice. That doesn’t mean that it isn’t intensely disappointing. In most of the campaigns I ever fought, I was more of a squeezee than a squeezer, left trying to convince people to vote for what they wanted most rather than against what they wanted least. So-called tactical voting is harder to determine under the new voting system for the Senedd elections, since it will probably only really have an impact on the sixth, or at best fifth and sixth, seats in any constituency, and it’s really hard to predict what will happen as we get down to that level of vote counting. Some of the politicians try to tell us that the new system makes every vote count, but it really isn’t true. Anyone voting for a party (or independent candidate) receiving less than around 10-12% of the vote in a constituency will effectively be, in the eyes of those trying to use the squeezing tactic, ‘wasting’ their vote; such votes will have no impact on the outcome of the election. Denial of the opportunity to register a second or third choice is my main criticism of the new system.

The question isn’t just about the mechanics and technicalities, however. I’ve long wondered just how effective the pressure to choose between Labour and Tory has been or, rather, to what extent the polarisation of electoral politics in the UK between the two largest parties was down to this tactic as opposed to other factors. Purely on the numbers, more recent elections show an increasing tendency away from a two-party polarisation – if it did work in the past, it hasn’t worked so well recently. Not only is it essentially a negative approach, but to the extent that it did work at all, it was never based on any careful analysis of opposing manifestos before choosing the lesser of two evils – it was far more visceral than that. A hatred of ‘the Tories’ on the one side and of ‘the Socialists’ on the other was always a substitute for proper debate between alternative visions for the future. Perhaps the fact that the ‘alternatives’ were generally not that different when analysed more objectively helped that framing. Whether either Plaid or Reform Ltd attract that sort of folk history-based hatred to a sufficient degree (outside the bubble in which the political anoraks live) is surely an open question. 'Stopping Reform' may not be quite the killer line that some seem to think.

They say that generals always prepare to refight the last war rather than the one that might actually happen, and I can’t help wondering if adopting a tactic based on what has historically believed to have been the case and trying to apply it in an entirely different scenario isn’t acting in a similar manner.