There was a report
a few days ago about the possibility that there had been some insider trading
on a web betting – sorry, ‘prediction’ – site where some individuals may have
made a killing by correctly ‘predicting’ either the attack on Iran or the death
of the Ayatollah. It may, of course, be the case that the involvement
of a Trump in the company hosting the ‘prediction’ market is a complete
coincidence and/or that one Trump knew nothing about what another Trump was
about to do. Perhaps there should be a market in predicting whether Trumps will
gain financially from US government actions.
It is, apparently, possible to put money on a ‘prediction’
of almost anything. It seems that the same company hosting the bets on those ‘predictions’
also briefly ran a market in predictions
of nuclear Armageddon. That market has subsequently been pulled, apparently
because some felt that an attempt to make a bit of money betting on the deaths
of millions of humans might be considered a little distasteful. To a compulsive
gambler – sorry, ‘predictor’ – there is nothing that’s off limits when it comes
to placing a bet, but the company running the market probably considered that
whatever it had by way of a reputation would probably not be helped.
I found myself wondering, though, what sort of person
would bet money on such an event. If the event happens, then the chances of the
gambler being alive to claim his winnings are slim, to put it mildly. The
chances of the company still being in existence to take the money from the
losers and pay it to the winners are even lower. And what would the winners do
with the money if there was no longer a functioning economy in which to spend
it? Maybe those betting on nuclear destruction believe that nuclear Armageddon
would not be so bad after all. The individual might survive a nuclear war, the
company might still be able to organise the pay out, and the money would still
be useful. But in those circumstances, the company would be able to argue,
justifiably, that what just happened wasn’t nuclear Armageddon after all; and
if the event didn’t happen, then those ‘predicting’ that it would happen would
neither win nor receive any payout. It’s an essentially unwinnable bet for
those predicting that outcome. There were some, apparently, willing to make the
bet anyway. Even if they had advance knowledge that someone intended to start
the nuclear war, it’s still a pretty stupid bet. As well as being tasteless.
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