Who's checking what the US are doing from UK bases?

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A few hours before Trump’s deadline for Iran to surrender, it was reported that heavily-laden B52 bombers were taking off (or at least attempting to) from RAF Fairford, presumably en route to Iran. Whether they were armed with conventional weapons or nuclear weapons we may never know, but we can only assume that the jets were turned back in flight after Trump agreed, instead, to negotiate the terms of his own surrender, based on an Iranian document which Trump described as “a workable basis on which to negotiate”, and which would require, amongst other things, the payment of reparations to Iran and the removal of US bases from the region. Trump clearly blinked first, although under what pressures from within his own administration remains uncertain.

Whether it’s really a sound basis for a lasting peace is another unknown at this stage, but the use of a UK base for launching those B52s is an issue which shouldn’t be allowed to go away. Starmer has taken what appears to be a very principled and legalistic stance in demanding that UK bases only be used for ‘defensive’ actions to protect British and allied lives in the Persian Gulf, and he has banned their use for offensive bombing campaigns against Iran. But here’s the question: does anyone really believe that those B52’s, whose take-off was timed so that they would arrive over Iran at about the time that Trump said he wanted to destroy an entire civilisation, were in any way involved in a ‘defensive’ mission rather than part of his planned attacks on civilian infrastructure?

When a bomb falls on an Iranian hospital, school, bridge, or power plant, who in the UK government knows whether it came from a plane flying from a UK base or not? Is anyone checking the mission details and flight logs of all US military aircraft departing from the UK to see whether the US is abiding by Starmer’s rules or not? Starmer has banked a certain, albeit limited, quantity of kudos for setting strict rules, but if adherence is not being monitored (even Starmer, surely, couldn’t be stupid enough to take Trump’s word about what he is doing), then those rules are meaningless. Accepting the word of the US president and then turning a blind eye to what happens in practice would not be the principled stance as which it is being presented.

Taming the markets

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It is a given that Trump’s statement about talks with Iran is a lie. Working out which part of his rant is the lie is much harder – maybe there are no talks at all; maybe there are some sort of indirect talks taking place through an intermediary; maybe (as Trump himself has hinted) the talks are taking place with someone who has no authority to hold them (and therefore to implement any agreement), and whose life is under threat if the regime currently in power find out he’s talking to Trump; perhaps he’s even talking to the late Shah’s son in the mistaken belief that he can put him back on the throne. With Trump, any or all of these are possibilities: the nearest thing to a certainty is that the statements coming from the regime in Iran are more likely to be true than anything Trump says. Only time will tell which lie he is telling.

Meanwhile, one of the apparent certainties is that the words emanating from Trump’s phone fingers can and do move markets. As a direct result of Trump’s claim about talks, conveniently issued shortly before markets opened, oil prices fell and stock market prices rose – two of the outcomes most highly valued by a man who measures the success or failure of everything in terms of increasing the wealth of himself and his billionaire friends. Superficially, it’s a puzzle as to why this happens. After all, those involved in the markets know as well as I do that the truth is a stranger to Trump’s lips, and that whatever he says now will probably be reversed in days, if not hours. What makes them place such trust in his words?

The answer to that lies not in what any of those involved in speculative buying and selling themselves believe might or might not be true, but in what they think that other speculative traders might or might not believe. If you believe that everyone else is going to be selling oil (pushing the price down) or buying stock (pushing the price up), then it becomes a race to sell or buy before everyone else does so in order to turn a quick profit. (And if you can get hold of some advance information, speculation – or even simple betting – becomes easier. It’s an obvious hazard when dealing with a ‘leader’ who sees personal and family enrichment as an entirely legitimate goal.)

That brings us to the problem with markets. As a mechanism for matching genuine sellers with genuine buyers, markets are an extremely effective process. They have, though, been largely hijacked by people who have no interest whatsoever in the ‘things’ they are buying and selling; it is the process of buying and selling in itself, with the prospect of turning a quick profit, which attracts them. Commentators describe volatile markets as a ‘problem’, but that’s only true for those genuine buyers and sellers. For speculators, volatility equals opportunity. The consequences of that volatility are felt in the ‘real’ economy by all of us, whilst a minority redirect wealth to themselves. For as long as legislatures allow this situation to continue, markets and the economy they support end up controlling us, when they should be serving society as a whole. Where are the politicians willing to tackle this scourge?

Trump can't make all the rules

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When I was a child, the kids from our street used to go into the fields at the end of the road and play commandos. Well, it was the 1950s, and ‘the war’ might not have been a memory for us, but it was still fresh to our parents’ generation. It was a game which would often dissolve into acrimony as debate raged over whether one or other of us was ‘taking his shots’; a debate in essence as to whether the imaginary bullet had hit or missed its target. Even the world’s best ballistics expert would have been unable to answer the question – tracing the trajectory of an imaginary bullet fired from an imaginary gun is no simple matter. And we didn’t have such an expert on hand anyway.

It was a childish debate, of course – but then we were children and children are allowed to be childish. But it seems to me that Trump – a man-child if ever there was one – has got to a similar stage in his war against Iran: the Iranians are just not taking their shots. He believes that he has ‘won’, but the loser is declining to oblige him by meekly accepting defeat. Six decades ago, we children learnt that no matter how determined any one of us might have been to set his or her own rules for the game, it only worked as long as the rest of us agreed to be rule-takers. It's not a lesson that everyone learns.

Trump has lived his entire life believing that he alone sets the rules, and that rules set by others can be ignored. Mostly, he’s had that stance validated by the behaviour of others, even if that behaviour has been the result of threats, bullying and aggressive law suits which many of his targets have chosen to settle rather than drag out at huge cost. And now he’s got himself into the most powerful position on the planet, with huge resources of weaponry at his disposal, and he’s encountering more push-back than he’s ever encountered before. Iran might be the bloodiest and most obvious source at present, but it’s also increasingly coming from other governments, which he sees as vassals, declining to prostrate themselves before him and do his bidding without question.

His instinctive reaction has been to fall back on the learned behaviour which has served him so well in the past – turn up the volume on the threats, insults and bullying. If – when – that doesn’t work, what will he do next? The world’s best hope is that he falls back on his other standard ploy: lie and claim victory. Repeatedly. Whether the other players will let him off the hook so easily remains to be seen. Not taking their shots can be habit-forming.

Lack of money isn't the problem

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It has long been understood that the one thing that governments can always find money for is war. War is undoubtedly costly, as the US is currently finding out. It is not really, though, a financial problem. As Professor Richard Murphy points out today, the real constraint isn’t financial, it’s about the availability of bombs and missiles and the ability of even the US economy to replace them at a fast enough rate. The US will run out of Tomahawk missiles because it can’t manufacture them with sufficient speed, not because it can’t pay for them. Similar considerations apply to Iran, of course – although an economy using lower cost, easier-to-produce weaponry can to some extent compensate for its relatively smaller size.

There is another corollary to this as well. There is talk that reducing the level of sanctions enforcement on Russian oil and gas to mitigate the economic impact of the war in Iran will enable Russia to prolong its own war in Ukraine by increasing the flow of money into Moscow’s Treasury. It’s true in only one important respect: to the extent that Russia needs materials, components etc from outside its own economy, increasing its flow of foreign exchange will assist it, but to the extent that it can meet those needs internally, then, just like the US, it won’t be a lack of money which constrains it.

Russia is vast; it has a huge range of raw materials available to it. It’s also a dictatorship: switching the use of its natural and human resources from peace time activities to war time ones is a lot easier than it is in a supposed democracy. Much of the response from ‘the West’ to the war in Ukraine has been based on the assumption that economic sanctions will reduce the sums available to the Russian government to spend on armaments and eventually force it to stop its aggression. But if those sanctions only impact Putin’s ability to make purchases outside the Russian economy, and Russia can meet most of its own needs within that economy, then the assumption is invalid. Russia can never run out of money, and can continue its war as long as it has the resources to do so available within its economy.

That’s not to argue that sanctions should not be applied, even if we know that they are widely being broken by back door transactions. It does, though, suggest that merely cutting off economic contact with a country with access to such vast resources of materials and labour will not bring that country to its knees any time soon. It’s more tokenistic than effective. It’s not a new lesson – Iran, for example, has been subject to severe sanctions for decades, and is still able to produce drones not only for its own use but also for export. The mistaken belief that money (or lack thereof) is a constraint on action by sovereign governments running their own currency has a lot to answer for.

Dealing with rogue states

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As an approach to winning the Nobel Peace Prize, starting an illegal war is certainly a novel one. Maybe Trump has abandoned all hope of ever winning the prize, or maybe he thinks that by starting a war which he can end at any time he chooses, he will shortly have another war to add to the list of the ones he’s personally ended. He certainly talks and behaves as though he assumes that no-one will remember what he did or said yesterday, never mind last year, so by the time he ends it, no-one – in his mind – will ever believe that he started it.

There is a huge difference between the world views of the late Ayatollah and Trump. On the one hand, the Ayatollah believed that he was god’s servant, doing god’s will by imposing his version of religion on the people of Iran and the wider world whereas, on the other hand, Trump believes that he was sent by (the same) god to impose divine will by the use of whatever force is necessary. The main lesson from that is that people in a position of power who believe that they have a unique ability to interpret god’s will, and a duty to impose that will on others by whatever means necessary, are inherently dangerous to the world. It’s not a particularly new lesson, sadly.

Trump’s actual motives are as clear as mud, and seem to change every time he opens his mouth. Preventing Iran from developing a nuclear weapon by destroying facilities which Trump told us had already been completely obliterated last year; revenge for terrorist acts (allegedly) carried out by or at the behest of the Iranian government; pre-empting an attack by Iran for which there was no credible evidence; ‘justice’ for the thousands of protestors killed on the streets of Iran and preventing the regime from carrying out further such killings; revenge for Iran being named in some utterly incredible conspiracy theory as being in cahoots with Venezuela to steal the 2020 election. Take your pick – any, all, or none of the above. But, to consider just one of those: killing hundreds of civilians to stop the Iranian authorities from killing civilians is a strange proposition to many of us, although as Stalin may or may not have said, “a single death is a tragedy; a million deaths is a statistic”. As Trump’s rather offhand dismissal of the deaths of US service personnel to date demonstrated, for someone so lacking in human empathy as him even a single death (as long as it isn’t his own) is merely a statistic.

Underlying it all, though, there is a very serious point, which an arbitrary attack on Iran does more to disguise than to reveal. There are regimes in the world which are a danger to their own citizens and the citizens of other (mostly neighbouring) countries, and it is a mark of failure for the international order that humanity has no effective way of dealing with them. Having international laws and rules is the easy part; enforcing them is quite another matter. It’s easy enough to identify Iran, North Korea and Russia as dangerous states, but dealing only with the one which does not currently possess nuclear weapons is about the best incentive I can think of for further nuclear proliferation. And then, there’s the even bigger question – who decides what is or is not a rogue state where regime change is required for the good of humanity? I named three above, because they’re reasonably uncontroversial. But what about Israel, for instance, with its creeping annexation of the West Bank and the tens of thousands of civilians killed in Gaza? What, indeed, about the USA under its current administration? Kidnapping people off the streets, disappearing them, ‘repatriating’ them without due process to places they’ve never visited, interfering in the affairs of other states both politically and militarily, blowing up boats in international waters, threatening to seize territory by force, kidnapping one national leader and assassinating another? Which characteristic of a rogue state has the US failed to meet?

There is no easy or simple solution to the problem; humanity has some way to go before we recognise that we are one species sharing one planet and need to co-operate, share, and live by a common basic set of rules. It’s much easier to say what the solution isn’t than identify what it is – but it definitely isn’t allowing the biggest and most powerful to take whatever arbitrary decisions suit its own selfish interests, or those of its rulers. Trump is taking the world backwards – and the UK’s Labour government now seems set on enabling and supporting him in that endeavour.

Which is the best way of dealing with Trump - bombs or tariffs?

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Two of the big stories in August 1968 were the Russian invasion of what was then Czechoslovakia, and the ongoing ‘troubles’ in the north of Ireland. It may be apocryphal – I’ve failed to trace the report directly – but there has long been a story about a newspaper publishing a picture of a youth throwing stones at a tank, which attracted a response from one reader asking whether the youth was a Czech patriot or an Irish hooligan. Fact or fiction, the story underlines that what we observe sometimes owes as much to our own prejudices as to objective fact.

Two stories from Trumpland yesterday underline the same phenomenon. Firstly, there was this one, with Trump officials in the wake of the apparent murder of Renee Good warning potential protesters that they will deal severely with anyone protesting against the repressive actions of the masked snatch squads which Trump has despatched to roam the streets of US cities. Then there was this one, in which Trump urged Iranians to keep protesting against the repressive actions of the Iranian authorities, threatening violence against the regime if they continue to kill protesters. Whether protest is good or bad depends on who’s doing the protesting and against what – nothing new there, it’s exactly the approach he adopted to the assault on Congress in January 2021.

He seems to have only two solutions to any problem, both of which are under consideration in relation to Iran. The first is violence: there must be somebody he can bomb. And the second is tariffs – in Trumpland, increasing the cost of goods or services for Americal consumers is axiomatically a way of seeking compliance from foreign governments. If those are the only things he understands, it gives the rest of the world a question about how we should respond to the growing lawlessness of the US authorities: should we bomb Washington, or impose tariffs on all US products? It's not a serious question, of course - but it's hard to think of anything else that he might even begin to understand.

Opposing tyranny

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What a difference a day makes. Just when some journalists were (rather foolishly and prematurely, given his past record) beginning to argue that Boris Johnson’s leadership at a time of crisis had saved his premiership in the eyes of the only people who matter, Tory MPs, he goes out of his way to show what a complete buffoon he is, and how utterly unfit he is to represent the UK on the world stage, by comparing the bloody and desperate struggle of Ukrainians against a Russian invasion with the UK’s vote to leave the EU. It’s a poor comparison in so many ways – not least because, on one interpretation, Putin is actually trying to ‘help’ Ukrainians avoid choosing to join what Johnson and Putin both apparently see as the evil and tyrannical EU. Johnson sees Brexit as his victory and is determined to celebrate it – but it was actually more of a victory for Putin who did so much to assist and fund the leave campaign in his aim of sowing division amongst his perceived enemies. Brexit is on course to do almost as much damage to the UK economy as sanctions will do to the Russian economy, just a little more gradually. Who needs sanctions when your opponent can be persuaded with a relatively small amount of cash to shoot his own foot?

When it comes to opposing tyranny, the PM has had a bad week all round. Repaying the UK’s debt to heavily-sanctioned Iran, something which has been ‘impossible’ for decades, sucking up to the United Arab Emirates the day before a company owned by the government of Dubai sacked 800 British seamen with a flagrant disregard for the law, and pleading for help to a Saudi government which is daily using the same tactics of bombing civilians in Yemen as Russia is using in Ukraine, all in pursuit of their oil, doesn’t exactly burnish his credentials as a supporter of freedom and democracy. Going on to warn the rest of the world not to make any deal with Putin, saying, “I know there are some others around the world who say it’s better to make accommodation with tyranny,” when that’s exactly what he’s spent the week trying to do with three other tyrants is just the hypocritical icing on the hollowed-out cake.

There is a very clear message from Johnson to Putin in all this: No matter how much we sanction you now, when a crisis arises somewhere else in the future and we need your help, we will reach an accommodation, just as we are now seeking to do with Iran. We will then turn a blind eye to your atrocities, just as we are doing with the Saudis, to whom we are even selling the weapons. Oil and money trump everything ultimately. It’s just a matter of time. Ethics don’t enter into the equation at all.

And it’s a message being delivered in our name for as long as we allow ourselves to be governed by a man demonstrably devoid of any sense of ethics or morality.

Brave or hypocritical?

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There’s something very uncomfortable about a world in which future peace depends on the Iranian Ayatollahs being more reasonable than the President of the USA.  We can but hope.  Whether one regards the deal from which Trump has walked away as good, bad or indifferent (and Trump’s principal reason for declaring it bad seems to be more to do with the fact that Obama negotiated it than with any of the detail), the underlying principle was that Iran was offered the economic carrot of a reduction in sanctions in return for agreeing to halt some aspects of its nuclear programme and permit international inspections.  The fact that Iran may have done some things which it never promised not to do isn’t really a very good reason for other signatories to stop doing the things to which they did agree.

But Trump has done more than simply removing the American carrot; he has made it clear that, whilst he and the US are reneging on their part of the deal, he still expects Iran not only to honour its part, but to do other things (or cease doing some things) as well, with an implied threat to back that up.  He has attempted to replace the carrot with a very big stick, and behave in the style of a schoolyard bully.  The European response has, thus far, been robust.  The determination of Macron, May and Merkel to seek to uphold the deal is to be welcomed.  There’s a ‘but’ to that, however: how far are they prepared to go?

In purely economic terms, the US has been doing little trade with Iran anyway since the sanctions were lifted, although there was at least one big deal in the pipeline.  An $18 billion deal to sell Boeing aircraft will now, inevitably, be cancelled and there will be an impact on jobs in the US.  Some might see that as an opportunity for Boeing’s main competitor, the European company Airbus, to fill the gap and sell extra planes on top of its existing $20 billion order from Iran.  Things are not quite that simple, though.  As Craig Murray has pointed out, there are US-made components in aircraft made by Airbus, which make the Airbus order itself fall foul of Trump’s decision.  The default position is the US expectation that the Airbus order will also be cancelled, or else the European companies involved will also be subject to US sanctions.  Trump’s re-imposition of sanctions on Iran doesn’t only affect US companies; it also applies to any non-US company which does business with both Iran and the US.

And that issue goes wider than just aircraft.  It also affects the banking system, for instance.  As this article in the New Yorker highlights, any European bank facilitating trade with Iran will leave it open to fines and sanctions in US courts.  The bully isn’t just aiming to stop US-Iran trade; he’s aiming to force his so-called allies and friends into line as well.  In that context, for the joint UK-France-Germany declaration to have any meaning at all, it requires using the strength of the massive trading bloc which the EU constitutes to resist American economic power – the EU is the only trading unit in the world in a position to do that – and take whatever steps are necessary to ensure that Europe can uphold the deal despite Trump.

It’s just as well, then, that none of those three European leaders making their bold statements is seeking to leave the EU, weaken the bloc’s economic power, and align itself ever more closely with the US economy.  That would be hypocritical, as well as silly, wouldn’t it?

Pots and kettles

Tweet The UK government, in the shape of the ex-Secretary of State for Wales, William Hague, has chided Iran’s leader for suggesting that Israel should sign the nuclear non-proliferation treaty.  It is, according to Hague, inappropriate for a country which has an advanced nuclear programme of its own to tell another country to give up nuclear weapons, unless it first does so itself.  So Iran must act first, was his basic message.

But if he’s right in his basic position, on what basis does a nuclear-armed state such as the UK, which is itself in breach of treaties over nuclear weapons and planning to breach them even further by building a new generation of weapons and delivery systems, have any right to tell either Iran or Israel what to do?