When will they take away his hammer?

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Last week, a Guardian columnist summarised Trump’s strategy by saying that “his own modus operandi, from his early days as a New York real estate investor onwards, has always been to simply do things that everyone can see are illegal … and hope that the other side will settle out of court or just live with a fait accompli”, adding “This method … of illegality – and hope for impunity – now characterizes almost the entire administration”. It seemed like a reasonable summary. I’ve never read Trump’s Art of the Deal, and can’t imagine any circumstances in which I might want to, but even without doing so, it’s probably safe to conclude that it doesn’t elaborate this particular element of his approach. With him having been a New York property developer prone to ‘unconventional’ approaches to legality, it’s not unreasonable to suppose that he will also have had dealings, consciously or not, with the mob, known for deploying violence, or the threat of violence, in gaining compliance; it’s another feature of his ‘career’ which is unlikely to have received much attention in his book.

Whether it’s an approach which has brought him success or not is a difficult question. He’s certainly had a long string of failures in both businesses and court cases, but like an inveterate gambler, he’s won enough to convince himself that he’s ahead, despite some analyses of his financial situation suggesting that he’d have ended up richer if he’d put his inheritance into a building society and spent his time cheating at golf. Up until his second inauguration, at least – during his second term, he really does seem to have monetised the presidency in ways which are unprecedented, even if not always entirely in accordance with what many others understand the law to be. But whether it’s actually been successful or not isn’t the point: he believes that a combination of illegality and violence has worked, and that belief is enough to encourage him to carry on.

He said recently that force is the only thing that the Iranian regime understands, but – in the sense in which he uses the word ‘understand’ – it simply isn’t true. They haven’t buckled in the face of repeated bombings, and there’s no sign that they’re likely to do so. All of Trump’s history suggests to him that they must inevitably do so eventually; it’s simply a matter of applying enough force. He cannot comprehend why things don’t happen in accordance with his expectations. He’s an extreme example of the old adage that when the only tool you have is a hammer, every problem looks like a nail. There are some signs that some of those around him are starting to realise the fallacy – but little evidence than anyone is yet recognising that they need to take away his hammer.