The
Secretary of State for Wales told us at the weekend that cutting just over a
pound off the cost of crossing the Severn bridges will ‘power [a] new business
boom with Bristol’. It’s probably just
as well that he made no attempt to explain how the one thing leads to the
other, although it would be interesting to have seen him try. It’s simply not credible that such a small
change – or even the larger change which is in the pipeline when the tolls are
abolished – will have as large an effect as he claims.
It’s
certainly true that the tolls have, from the outset, been a disincentive to
companies basing themselves in Wales. It
may not be a huge extra cost, but small costs repeated many times can become
large sums, and it’s easy to see how that becomes a factor in deciding on
location. But the absence of a negative
isn’t the same as the presence of a positive, as my old maths teacher would
have said, and the removal of a disincentive doesn’t magically create an incentive. The idea that a reduction in tolls – or even
their abolition – can suddenly create new economic growth is fanciful at
best. During the years that the tolls
have been in place, companies have already taken their decisions on location,
and they aren’t suddenly going to change those because of this change; creating
a more level playing field for future decisions isn’t the same as tilting it in
our direction in respect of past decisions.
But
when the promised land predicted by prophet Cairns fails to arrive, it will no
doubt all be the fault of the Labour administration in Cardiff. He seems to think that he’s done his bit now.
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1 comment:
The severn bridge tolls are very much a conundrum. High tolls means greater cost of travelling to Wales [or going out and coming back].
Low or no fees benefits the Bristol region. Almost the entire region will benefit whilst south wales will drain to that region. The costs of living and commuting for an employee/worker going to or working or living in Bristol at the moment suddenly evaporates - cheaper housing [house prices considerably lower than Bristol - even in Gwent/Monmouthshire, higher salary [less any car/petrol costs] than in wales [private sector anyway]. Employer - no need to have a factory/warehouse etc in S.Wales, cost of transport suddenly drops or evaporates and with M4 improvements its a win win. Gradually left with no actual local jobs but people working away in the Bristol region?
The economic benefits and costs are not yet properly researched. Sometimes the improvements to the wales economy and infrastructure leech over to Bristol more than expected.
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