Whilst in theory the Welsh Government has
the power to determine what steps should be taken to minimise Covid risks, in
practice the scope for divergence from England is limited by the tight control
of the purse strings being retained in London, the long and porous nature of
the border, and the shared media which inevitably highlights what is happening
in England and can lead to a degree of confusion when the rules differ. Despite
that, the Welsh Government has tried to maintain a safer environment in Wales
than that pertaining in England, and has succeeded, by and large, in keeping
most of the population on board with its decisions.
It has been clear since the emergence of
the latest variant that the desire of Wales (and Scotland) to take stronger
action that England is still strong, with the First Ministers of both countries
openly demanding
tougher action, a demand which Johnson has rejected outright. It isn’t just
non-Tory politicians who are expressing their concern – just yesterday, Johnson
slapped
down the head of the UK Health Security Agency for her entirely sensible
advice that people should try and avoid unnecessary socialising. The PM,
apparently, is all in favour of unnecessary socialising whatever the risk. Today,
senior doctors and NHS leaders have warned
that the government needs to take stronger action on a precautionary basis,
describing it as “bizarre” to wait until a spike happens before acting.
Whilst the government is entirely correct
to emphasise that advisors advise and ministers decide, a decision not to act
in the face of such strong advice from so many experts indicates that the government
has decided to take a gamble. How much of a gamble remains to be seen. It may
be that they end up being lucky: the new variant could turn out to be less of a
problem than some think likely. If that happens, they will retrospectively
claim that they took the right decisions, ignoring the degree to which luck
plays a part; if things are as bad as others fear, the gamble will cost
thousands of premature deaths. None of us – not even the most knowledgeable
experts – have enough information at present even to make a reliable guess as
to the outcome; only time will tell. Johnson might get away with it this time –
that would be a good outcome in the short term, but might also simply encourage
even more recklessness in the future.
What is clear is that the UK government is
being less than honest with the population. Their rejection
of the suggestion that all arrivals into the UK should self-isolate until after
a second negative test on day 8 (as put forward by Mark Drakeford and Nicola
Sturgeon) was on the basis that it would have a detrimental impact on the
travel industry, which demonstrates that impacting one particular industry
sector is a more important consideration for Johnson than hospitalisations and
deaths, let alone increased pressure on the NHS. Presenting sound and sensible
public health actions as being ‘restrictions’ on ‘liberty’ not only presses the
right buttons with the Tory party’s increasingly influential extremists, but
also encourages the public to overlook the fact that our lives are the stake in
Johnson’s massive gamble, a gamble which puts profit ahead of people. And, to
return to where this post started, as long as Wales is tied to England, no
matter how much the Welsh Government might huff and puff, Welsh lives are part
of that stake as well.
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