No victory for Remain

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For those of us opposed to Brexit, replacing a pro-Brexit MP in Brecon and Radnor with an anti-Brexit one is good news of sorts, although the fact that the new MP is a member of an anti-independence and pro-nuclear weapons party means that it’s not exactly unalloyed good news from my perspective.  The impact of the electoral pact, under which Plaid and the Green Party stood aside for the Lib Dems is unclear and will remain so unless and until someone does some research on those who actually voted comparing their vote this time with their vote at the previous election.  We simply don’t know whether former Green/Plaid voters went out and cast their votes for the Lib Dems in accordance with the wishes of the leaders of those parties, voted for someone else in protest, or simply stayed at home.  I suspect that there was a mixture of all three; standing down will only have made a difference if significantly more of them voted Lib Dem than took either of the other courses of action open to them.

Of the votes cast, 43.5% went to the only unequivocal anti-Brexit candidate, whilst the three pro-Brexit parties scooped up 50.4% between them.  Even if we count Labour as anti-Brexit (a highly dubious assumption at present), the result was still 50.4: 48.8.  On a reduced turnout, it could be that Brexit supporters felt more motivated to vote, of course, and there is always a danger in drawing too many conclusions from a single by-election; but the one clear conclusion that I draw is the negative one – this result does not provide any evidence of a significant change in opinion towards Brexit since the referendum in 2016.  Had the Brexit Party not stood – or had the election been conducted under a proportional system – the pro-Brexit Tory would probably have won, despite his criminal conviction and the strong support for the recall ballot.  Anti-Brexit and anti-Johnson celebrations are more than a little premature.

The Tories and the Farageists will surely draw the obvious conclusion as well – that fighting elections against each other will potentially reduce the number of pro-Brexit MPs in the House of Commons, especially if the Remain side can cluster their support around a single candidate (something which should be much easier for them in England than in Wales or Scotland).  For the Remain side, the biggest single obstacle to reversing the referendum result continues to be the chaotic and incoherent position of the Labour Party.  The good news for Johnson (and the bad news for those of us opposed to Brexit) is that there is still no sign of the Labour Party digging itself out of the hole into which it has placed itself.