For those of us opposed to Brexit,
replacing a pro-Brexit MP in Brecon and Radnor with an anti-Brexit one is good
news of sorts, although the fact that the new MP is a member of an
anti-independence and pro-nuclear weapons party means that it’s not exactly
unalloyed good news from my perspective.
The impact of the electoral pact, under which Plaid and the Green Party
stood aside for the Lib Dems is unclear and will remain so unless and until
someone does some research on those who actually voted comparing their vote
this time with their vote at the previous election. We simply don’t know whether former
Green/Plaid voters went out and cast their votes for the Lib Dems in accordance
with the wishes of the leaders of those parties, voted for someone else in
protest, or simply stayed at home. I
suspect that there was a mixture of all three; standing down will only have
made a difference if significantly more of them voted Lib Dem than took either
of the other courses of action open to them.
Of the votes cast, 43.5% went to the only
unequivocal anti-Brexit candidate, whilst the three pro-Brexit parties scooped
up 50.4% between them. Even if we count
Labour as anti-Brexit (a highly dubious assumption at present), the result was
still 50.4: 48.8. On a reduced turnout,
it could be that Brexit supporters felt more motivated to vote, of course, and
there is always a danger in drawing too many conclusions from a single
by-election; but the one clear conclusion that I draw is the negative one –
this result does not provide any evidence of a significant change in opinion
towards Brexit since the referendum in 2016.
Had the Brexit Party not stood – or had the election been conducted
under a proportional system – the pro-Brexit Tory would probably have won, despite
his criminal conviction and the strong support for the recall ballot. Anti-Brexit and anti-Johnson celebrations are
more than a little premature.
The Tories and the Farageists will surely
draw the obvious conclusion as well – that fighting elections against each
other will potentially reduce the number of pro-Brexit MPs in the House of
Commons, especially if the Remain side can cluster their support around a
single candidate (something which should be much easier for them in England
than in Wales or Scotland). For the Remain
side, the biggest single obstacle to reversing the referendum result continues
to be the chaotic and incoherent position of the Labour Party. The good news for Johnson (and the bad news
for those of us opposed to Brexit) is that there is still no sign of the Labour
Party digging itself out of the hole into which it has placed itself.
3 comments:
But what about all those people who were mislead into voting LEAVE at the time of the original referendum?
Surely these people weren't duped again into voting for one or other of the two main BREXIT supporting parties?
The lies just keep on getting bigger and bigger. We should demand the truth is told!
I'd put it rather differently. Certainly, many of those who voted 'leave' in 2016 did so on the basis of a series of beliefs, such as:
that it would be painless;
that we could enjoy all the same benefits without any of the obligations;
that we had lost control and could get it back.
I don't think that people have "been duped again"; I think it's more the case that nothing that has happened since has caused them to change those beliefs, and, of course, the people who spun those lies in 2016 are still spinning them now.
I'm not sure that the lies are getting bigger and bigger as you suggest, simply repeated over and over to a receptive audience.
An excellent analysis of the politics of the real world – as I would expect.
I have no idea what Plaid members voted, but spoke with one before the election and it was a 50/50 between not voting or Brexit.
The pact between the parties that withdrew ,could be just a massive virtue-signalling of the decade and questions are surfacing in Plaid heartland with the expectation of a pay back, if there was not a worked out agreement (I doubt it), then Little Adam Whataa-Price could be in for a very difficult and damaging ride.
One thing we must be grateful for, is that the Brexit voters are not calling for a rerun, as the majority was not big enough.
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