Logic and Reality

Tweet According to a report in the Sunday Times, a group of MPs have come up with a wizard wheeze to overcome the potential difficulty of relocating the Trident base should the people of Scotland vote yes in the independence referendum.  They have suggested that the base, at Faslane, should be redesignated as the sovereign territory of the RUK, and thus not part of Scotland at all.

This would not only mean that the SNP would achieve their aim of removing Trident from Scottish soil, it would also save the RUK from having to spend £20 billion or so on building a new alternative base.  (To say nothing, of course, about saving the blushes of Carwyn Nuke-Em Jones if his suggestion of moving the base to Milford Haven were to be resurrected.)

The MPs’ logic is impeccable, but somewhat dwarfed by the extent of their failure to understand or grasp political reality. 

It’s not clear whether they were proposing to simply ‘deduct’ Faslane from the rest of Scotland before ‘granting’ the rest of the country Independence, or whether they were proposing to negotiate this proposition.  I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt, and assume that they were proposing the latter rather than some sort of post-colonial dictat, but it still leaves two rather obvious questions.

Firstly, do they really believe that the first act of a Scottish Government would be to cede control over part of their country to the RUK in order to avoid having to implement a clear and explicit promise?

And secondly, do they really believe that even a verbal wizard like Alex Salmond could get away with arguing that ceding Faslane to England amounts to implementation of his promise to remove Trident from Scottish soil?

Mohammed and the mountain

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Another thing that struck me about the Salmond-Cameron summit was the symbolism in the fact that Cameron travelled to Edinburgh to meet Alex Salmond.  One can imagine the discussions in advance, weighing up the options, and reaching the conclusion that playing Salmond's game was the lesser of two evils compared to being seen to summon him to London.  Tough call, and one he was never going to win.  1-0 to Salmond before Cameron even sat down.

His announcement that unspecified further devolution is on the table, but only if the Scots first reject the independence option was probably intended to try and regain the initiative.  But for those of a different viewpoint, it looks more like bowing to the inevitable.

Underlying it is a fundamental failure to understand the nature of Scottish nationalism.  I'm convinced that Cameron really does believe that a quick vote on Independence, with a clear 'no' vote, will kill the issue.  In his dreams.  Nationalists have always been playing the long game, and will continue to do so whatever the result of the referendum.

Cameron's problem – and he's far from being alone amongst UK politicians in this regard – is that he's reacting to events rather than driving them.  The agenda is being set elsewhere – and very skilfully too.  Reacting to events by offering more on a conditional basis merely underlines the extent to which he is being driven by events.

If he, and others who see the 'preservation of the union' as a worthwhile aim, really wanted to seize the initiative, they'd start to talk about reinventing the union itself.  That means looking at what changes are needed for the benefit of all, rather than just attempting to buy off the Scots.

Here in Wales, some members of his own party are showing that they understand that, David Melding being the most obvious.  Some form of federal state, with a written constitution, would be the best way of putting a positive case for the UK, and would be a difficult scenario for nationalists to deal with.  It's not likely to happen though; such voices continue to be very effectively marginalised within their party.

Failure to escape from the mindset of pragmatic response to events seems to be second nature for UK politicians.  And it will be their undoing.