Hope vs experience

Tweet Estyn’s ‘excellent’ report on Ceredigion’s education system looks like good news for the county’s children and parents, and the county council is well in order to be celebrating the success.  There may be one or two devils hiding in the detail, and I’m always at least a little dubious about whether comparisons are as meaningful as they’re made out to be, but at least we now have a series of county by county reports produced by the same body on, one assumes, the same basis and criteria.

Whilst the fact that Wales’ 19^th largest authority has done better than the 18 larger ones above it doesn’t disprove the notion that smaller authorities find it harder to deliver consistent high quality services, it very much disproves the notion that size is the sole or even the main determinant of performance.  Yet the wholly subjective argument that Wales’ local authorities are ‘too small’ has been one of the key arguments of those wanting to rush headlong into an arbitrary reorganisation of local government.

Where does it leave the proposed merger of Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire?  Pembrokeshire is the 14^th largest authority – that doesn’t sound too different from 19^th, but by population, Pembrokeshire would represent around 60% of the new county.  Pembrokeshire’s Estyn report was, shall we say, rather less glowing than that received by Ceredigion.

That means that there are some other questions which need to be asked: When two organisations of different size merge, which culture is likely to be dominant – that of the smaller or that of the larger?  And when it comes to amalgamating the staff and management posts, which authority is likely to predominate - the larger, or the smaller?  And where will most of the councillors making the appointments come from – the larger or the smaller?

I know which I think is likeliest to happen – believing that the smaller will prevail would be to elevate hope and optimism over logic and experience.

And then there were none...

Tweet A mere six months ago, in May, the Lib Dems celebrated almost unparalleled success (for them) in Carmarthenshire and Pembrokeshire, with one candidate elected to Carmarthenshire County Council, and 3 to Pembrokeshire County Council.

It took only a few days for the Lib Dem group in Carmarthenshire to annihilate itself, when the sole member signed up for full membership of the Independent Party on the council.

It's taken a little longer in Pembrokeshire, but last week, that group too finally succeeded in extinguishing itself. It wasn't long after the election when one of the three resigned from the council, causing a by-election which they promptly lost. That left them with a group of two councillors - until last week when one of the two formally resigned from the group.

That leaves both of them now officially unaligned with any group or party – or even with each other. It is, of course, all part of a cunning plan on their part – it seems that, under the council's rules, they'll qualify for more committee seats if they pretend not to be friends any more. It still looks like a very odd thing to do, though.

Falling out

Tweet Something of a spat in Labour ranks in Pembrokeshire as a result of three of their candidates ‘jumping ship’ just before the county council elections, and fighting as ‘Independents’ instead. The three Labour candidates made their decision very late in the day, too late for Labour to select alternative candidates; and their decision was part of the reason for the fall in the number of Labour members of the county council.

After their election, the three promptly signed up as members of the ‘Independent Political Group’ (IPG), and the alleged ringleader, Cllr Ken Rowlands was rewarded for his disloyalty to his own party with a cabinet seat, along with the appropriate Special Responsibility Allowance. Suspicions that this offer was in fact made in advance of the election have been strenuously denied by Cllr Rowlands, who says the offer came out of the blue. 'Blue' in more senses than one, perhaps, given the political leanings of the leader of the IPG?

The fact that he has card-carrying members of the Labour Party in his IPG was something that the group leader used to claim that the IPG is not just a Tory front - although this is likely to be a short-lived state of affairs, as the three inevitably face expulsion from their former party.

According to the report in the Western Telegraph, Cllr Rowlands felt that the note sent to him by Labour's county leader, Sue Perkins, was “vitriolic”, and has led to Cllr Rowlands seeking legal advice about a possible action against her. (The note has inevitably ended up in the public domain). Cllr Rowlands claims that his local Labour branch understood what he was doing, and supported him. This one may run a while yet.

I cannot, in all honesty, say that I feel a huge amount of dismay at the disarray of the Labour Party in Pembrokeshire. As a candidate for another party, I doubt that anyone would expect me to. But I do have some sympathy with the statement by Cllr Perkins that the action of the three people concerned deprived voters of the choice of voting for a Labour candidate. (I could add, of course, given the overall election results, that it equally deprived voters of the chance to vote against Labour!).

PS: These are not the only Labour Party members on Pembrokeshire County Council facing possible action against them by their party. Danny Fellows, the staunch trades unionist who was for many years the agent to local MPs and candidates has also jumped ship and joined the IPG. After apparently failing to persuade the Labour candidate in his ward to stand down in his favour, he stood as an ‘Independent’ anyway and won. Another seat lost to Labour through the actions of their own members.

Shades of Blue

Tweet Prior to the county elections, the Tories claimed that they were going to turn Pembrokeshire blue. They started well, by putting up a total of 25 candidates. They finished rather less well by winning only 5 seats – the same as Plaid and Labour.

That doesn’t quite tell the whole story, however. Their tactics in deciding where to fight were interesting to say the least. Many of us have suspected for some time that many of the so-called ‘Independents’ who run the county were Tories in disguise, and the Tory election tactics seem to have confirmed as much. The ‘official' Tories were dispersed around the county to fight against the other parties, often miles from their own wards, where the ‘Independents’ were given a clear run.

Take Penally, for instance, where Angela Burns’ agent stood against Plaid Councillor, Carol Cavill (and lost). Ms Clements actually lives miles away in Martletwy, where the 'Independent' member, Rob Lewis (whose picture just happened to feature on Ms Burns' election literature) was re-elected unopposed. Just a coincidence, I’m sure.

Or how about Tenby, where the candidate from Pembroke Dock left (self-avowed Tory) 'Independent' Councillor Brian Hall to fight off a Labour challenge from Christine Gwyther, whilst taking herself off to Tenby, and a somewhat humiliating defeat by long-serving Plaid Councillor Mike Williams.

With three parties on five seats each, there is now apparently something of a debate about who should form the official opposition (and claim the extra allowances, of course). Old Grumpy tips the Tories to win, by peeling off one of their members from the ‘Independent’ Group. If this happens, it could be a first for the Tories (or, as far as I am aware, any other party in Wales). Both the council leader and the leader of the opposition would be members of the same party, and the Tories would be in government and opposition at the same time. Not for nothing is County Hall fondly known as the Kremlin on the Cleddau.

I didn’t think that that was quite what they meant when they said they’d turn the county blue, but I suppose it takes all sorts.