A few days ago, Trump gave Qatar an
astonishing guarantee of security, promising that he would view any armed
attack on the tiny energy-rich nation as a threat to the United States itself
and be ready to take military action in defence of Qatar. Given that, in a way
that I don’t pretend to fully understand, the ‘right to self-defence’ has
somehow morphed in recent years into a right to mount a wholly disproportionate
retaliatory attack, the pact must surely mean that anyone attacking Qatar
should expect a massive response from the US military. And which country is most likely to launch a military attack on Qatar? Based on recent events, the most obvious
answer is Israel.
Maybe Netanyahu has
given Trump some sort of promise that he won’t do it again, so Trump doesn’t
think the question will arise. But neither of them are exactly famous for
keeping their word. A Trump promise to Qatar based on a Netanyahu promise to
Trump doesn’t immediately strike me as a reliable basis for the security of
anyone. In normal times, a $400 million bribe in the form of a free aeroplane might
be enough to get something in return; but then again, in normal times, the idea
of the President of the USA accepting a $400 million bribe would be
unthinkable. One wonders what else Trump has extracted from Qatar in his latest
protection racket payment for the defence pact. After all, the first bribe
didn’t stop the US allowing Israel to bomb Doha (and even if Trump is personally
and unprecedentedly telling the truth when he says that ‘he’ had no advance
knowledge, the idea that the largest US base in the region wasn’t warned in
advance is for the birds). There must surely be something else involved. Another
golf course or hotel perhaps?
There is another
aspect to Trump’s promise as well. If an attack on Qatar is treated the same as
an attack on the US itself, does the NATO guarantee of mutual assistance extend
to that circumstance as well? Has Trump effectively promised that the whole of
NATO would attack Israel if another bomb were dropped on Doha? No, I don’t
seriously believe that he has – although that doesn’t necessarily mean that he
doesn’t think that he has. Whatever the Qataris have given Trump in exchange
for this latest guarantee, they would be very foolish to depend on it ever
being honoured.
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