What ‘winning an
election means is not as straightforward a question as it might appear. It’s
easier to answer in an individual constituency or ward than it is overall: under
first-past-the-post, (FPTP) it’s whoever gets the most votes, whether that amounts
to an overall majority or not, and under any of the various alternative systems
used in different places, the winner(s) is/are the candidate(s) who come out on
top after the various rounds of counting. Looking at the situation overall,
however, it’s too easy and simplistic, especially for those whose understanding
is based primarily on FPTP, to conclude that the party with the highest number
of seats or votes is ‘the winner’. It is on that flimsy basis that some polls
are suggesting that Reform plc could ‘win’ the next Senedd election.
There is, though, no
serious suggestion that Reform plc will win a majority of the seats – and nor
will any other party on the basis of any polls taken to date. Though neither
party will particularly thank anyone for pointing it out, the likeliest outcome
of the next Senedd election is some sort of arrangement between Labour and
Plaid, even if they are the second and third placed parties (whichever way
round) in terms of seats. Surely, the real ‘winners’ of the election will be
the party or parties that form the next government rather than the one with the
numerically largest number of seats? The only way that Reform plc can be part
of any government in the Senedd is by coming to some arrangement with one or more
other parties. And there is only one other party likely to countenance that. It’s
not entirely impossible, based on current polling, that Reform plc and the
Tories between them might garner enough seats for a majority, but it stll
appears vanishingly unlikely. Talk of Reform plc ‘winning’ the election is somewhat
overblown in that context.
Whether it’s right
that the largest party should be excluded from participating in government purely
because they cannot – either alone or by working with others – conjure up a
working majority will be perceived (and presented) by some as some sort of
affront to democracy, but it really is not. It is an inevitable possible
consequence of a more proportional system of voting under which more parties
are enabled to have representation for their viewpoints. And the simple fact is
that Farage and his crew are unable to command a majority for their views in Wales.
The fact that a party representing only a minority viewpoint cannot end up with
a majority of the seats is a positive feature of PR, not a flaw or bug. It’s
just a pity that England insists on keeping a system which does allow that to
happen and imposing it on us when it comes to government at the UK level. It’s
a mistake – albeit one made by plenty of political commentators – to allow our
thinking to be constrained by English norms into believing that the party with
the largest number of seats is always the ’winner’, and talking in such terms only
emboldens those who would wish to cry foul.
Posts
6 comments:
In fairness to Farage, he has long advocated for PR and as far as I am aware, it's not him who's moaning that a plurality of the votes won't deliver a majority of the seats at the next Senedd election. Which is not to say that plenty of Reform supporter won't be doing exactly that. They are not the brightest of people generally.
In what circumstances will a solidly left party do a coalition with a solidly right party? Answer, when something important is at stake. See Germany now. Wales, soon after getting an Assembly, had a chance to do something important namely break the Labour Stranglehold on Wales. Would have neen an important achievement. But we blew it.
In what circumstances will a solidly left party do a coalition with a solidly right party? The problem with the question is that it has an implicit assumption that we know what a solidly left or solidly right party looks like when we see one. It underlines my own reticence about using the terms, although they are sometimes a useful shorthand. Take your example of Germany: is the CPD SPD coalition really a meeting of a right wing party with a left wing party, or is it more accurately described as a coalition between two centre-right parties aligned against the extreme right? Closer to home, the most viable coalition of all - in Wales as in the UK as a whole - would be Labour-Tory, an alliance of the two most popular centre-right parties. I doubt it will ever happen, though, because both parties base a major part of their appeal on not being the other, despite the policy cross-over being extensive.
In that context, breaking the Labour stranglehold on Wales looks like another example of the same thing: it's based on what people are against (or, rather, on the perception of the party which they claim to be against). Actually, I was never against the principle of co-operating with the Tories, but not opposing the principle doesn't translate to automatic support for doing so. For an independence party to form an agreement with an independence-opposing party, there has to be a sufficient and clear gain in terms of movement towards the goal. And such a government has to be sustainable: in 2007, whilst the theoretical arithmetic looked viable, the maths was always more theoretical than practical, and I never believed that such a government would last longer than a few months. Whilst breaking Labour's stranglehold might meet, just about, the first of those two criteria, if that turned out to be only temporary and end in collapse it might have ended up having the opposite effect. We will never know.
Interesting reply. What am I against? I personally find the 100-year Labour hold on Wales objectionable because of the negativity, Port Talbot v Scunthorpe being just the latest example. What am I for? Full Indy, yes. But in stages because we must face the practicalities. So I am for Dominion Status ie keep the Monarch and the £, and get a Wales which keeps the money it collects and runs itself. Does not raise Left v Right issues in my mind.
What is a viable coalition in Wales? Plaid + Tories would have been sensational. Not because they are compatible long-term, but it would have freed up the whole argument and done important short-term things. The viable coalition just round the corner does require a recognition of a highly controversial proposition. That 'common-sense' politics should become acceptable. So I favour Dominion Status. I am not hung up about its supposed connotations. Ireland, Canada etc weren't. The beauty of it is that all the following could subscribe:
Tories who want Wales to be self-sufficient ie get control and sensible budgets
Plaid members who supposedly want this ie to get nearer Indy.
Lib Dems, who are Federalist
Gwlad - like Plaid under Wigley
Propel (who have teeth in Cardiff)
Labour - assuming that there are Gwynoro Jones-type nationalists, which is hard to know.
Reform inclined - who simply want an end to malaise-Wales.
"...it would have freed up the whole argument and done important short-term things" - maybe, but only if it had lasted long enough. The arithmetic at the time was 26 Labour, 12 Tory, 15 Plaid, 6 Lib Dem and an Independent. Best case is Ind supported the coalition, making any vote 34:26. If Ind went with Labour that changes to 33:27. An overall majority of 6 looks impressive, BUT: do you believe that all 15 Plaid and all 12 Tory (to say nothing of 6 Lib Dems who are members of an inherently undependable party) could be dragooned into voting the same way, day after day, week after week for a four year term? Andrew RT Davies and Leanne Wood (to choose two names not entirely at random) standing shoulder to shoulder for all that time? To be blunt, I simply did not believe it a likely scenario (and there are other names I could have thrown in). I felt at the time that people were putting simplistic raw mathematics against complex poilitical calculations, and coming to a far too easy conclusion. Whilst not opposing the principle, I simply didn't believe it to be a practicable, workable proposition.
Thanks for the well-informed reply. I accept that I may have been 'simplistic'.Matters because Wales may well be facing the same problem soon. The divide, of which RT v LW is a good Welsh example, certainly does exist. I really hope we get a cross-party pro-Wales outcome in 2026.....but fear the worst.
Post a Comment