There is much
that I can agree with in the picture
of Wales in 2030 painted by Adam Price in his reported speech at Plaid Cymru’s
Spring Conference last weekend. I’m very
sceptical about the one part which the Western Mail used to headline its story – the
idea of Wales having its own national airline – and I’ll come back to that
tomorrow. But the rest sets out a vision
of a Wales significantly different from the one in which we live today.
In his analysis
of the conference on Monday, the Western Mail’s Chief Reporter suggested that
the vision “exists in a vacuum, robbed of
any real political context”, not least because it didn’t really seem to
take into account the impact of leaving the EU, or the unlikelihood of Plaid
winning two terms in government in the Assembly in order to implement the
proposals. I thought that a fair point
to make, but it wasn’t really addressing the most important question for
me. I’d certainly agree that one of the
probable effects of Brexit in the short and medium term is that the degree of
growth in the UK (and therefore Welsh) economy will be lower than it might
otherwise be, but that isn’t the same as saying that there’ll be no growth at
all. It constrains, rather than
prevents, investment in building a different future. And it’s certainly true that the prospects of
Plaid being called on to deliver seem more than a little remote at this
stage. That shouldn’t, however, prevent
a party from setting out a vision of what Wales could become given the will, and
this is a better vision than any of the other parties are currently offering. It’s a change from the managerialism of
recent years, when the message from all parties has seemed to be simply that ‘we’
can run things better.
The suggestion
of an independence referendum in or after 2030 is also welcome, although I wasn’t
entirely sure whether putting it in those terms was an attempt to put the
question back on the agenda or an attempt to kick it so far in the future as to
make debate unnecessary in the short term.
It can be interpreted either way.
It’s still a step forward from the position of recent years where Plaid
basically supported the position of the unionists that Wales couldn’t afford
independence, but it will take a lot more to undo the damage of that particular
aberration.
The most
important question for me, though, was the ‘chicken-and-egg’ one: is what Plaid
is proposing achievable within the current devolution settlement, setting Wales
up for independence at a later date, or does it actually require independence
as a pre-requisite to deliver such an ambitious programme in so short a
timetable?
One of the key
differences between an independent state and a subordinate parliament operating
entirely within the parameters set by its superior is that the latter is
obliged to balance its budget and spend within its revenue, borrowing only
within defined limits and obliged to repay those debts in full. Independent states in control of their own currency,
on the other hand, have no such constraints – they can create money as they
wish, borrow as much as they like, and very rarely actually repay the money
that they borrow. The prime limitation
on their freedom isn’t a set of rules defined by others, but the actual or
probable inflationary effect of their actions.
(An EU state within the Eurozone falls somewhere in between those two positions).
When I look at
the vision outlined by Plaid, I don’t see a programme which I believe can be
delivered within the current powers and finances of the Assembly. As a vision for what Wales could be in a
fairly short period after independence, it works for me, and is the sort of
longer term view which our politicians have been failing to provide. But in the form in which it seems to have
been presented – a vision of what we can achieve before independence – I doubt
that it is realistic. And there is a
danger that suggesting that we can have many of the benefits of independence
without actually becoming independent is not only a variation on Brexit
cakeism, but also raises a negative question – if we can do all that without
independence, why do we need independence at all?
Posts
2 comments:
Do you mind if I sharpen this up a bit?
Plaid has lacked any road-map. Now we have one.
Obviously it can't work within the present system. Plaid (LW anyway) being unwilling to work with the Tories means there'll be no shake up, let alone Referendum Bill. But who wants to keep the shot Assembly anyway? We'll get a better one.
We can't really see a clear path until Wales controls the revenue raised in Wales. Just how much will we have ourselves, and what will we need from London? Simply going through this exercise ought to wake us up and cut our dependence on London - as the Welsh Tories are saying. (Its not a matter of being a Tory, its a matter of self-respect).
And we can't really choose a clear path unless we are clear about Dominion Status ie being a State like a US one in a Federal UK. This really is a no-brainer - provided Welsh politicians take the trouble to work out a framework and make sure we absorb it and debate it in our own Legislature.
But I can see a way through, and I bet you can Borthlas. It just takes some guts to at least grapple with it all, rather than wring our hands.
Still on guts, when you come to write on Welsh airlines, I don't want to here all the problems. I know about those. We had two Welsh airlines remember, so the soil must be fertile. Answer me this. If we can have long-haul to the Persian Gulf, why can't we have long-haul to the USA. No insurmountable reason, surely?
"Obviously it [the road map] can't work within the present system" I basically agree with that, but a map which you know you can't use isn't much cop as a map. And trying to sell it as though it were useful looks more than a little shifty to me. But agreeing that the road map as presented is useless as a means of getting to the destination doesn't invalidate the destination. We just need a better map. The problem isn't even with developing a better map - I think we both agree that to be possible, even if we wouldn't produce identical versions. The problem is that the route will be much more difficult and uncomfortable than the route on the useless map, and there is a fear that people won't buy a useful map as a result. That's no excuse for selling a duff map - but it is a reason for concentrating more on selling the destination.
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