Yesterday, I referred
to the log-jam in Welsh politics, which is partly a result of an electoral
system which, because of the way support for different parties spreads
geographically in Wales, favours Labour over other parties. However, complaining about the system –
however valid that complaint might be – doesn’t alter the facts that (a) the
results we get are the result of the way people choose to cast their votes, and
(b) the system isn’t going to change any time soon.
But if there is
no chance of a change to the voting system freeing us from Labour hegemony in
Wales, how might that otherwise be achieved?
About the one thing that can be said with some certainty is that
carrying on doing the same thing won’t bring about that result. The main opposition to Labour is divided
fairly evenly between Plaid and the Tories, as it has been for the last four
Assembly elections (with the benefit of hindsight, the first election in 1999
looks more like an outlier than the dawn of a new age). There is no sign of that changing. And if I can (unfairly, I know) distil the
strategy of both of those parties down to a single sentence, they look
remarkably similar: “We are the only
party that can defeat Labour and we can run things better than they can; if we
take our target seats from Labour we can win more seats than they do and we can
then form or lead a minority government”.
Although not
directly stated, it’s a strategy which effectively depends on persuading the
non-Labour voters in any given constituency to vote for whichever of the two
parties stands the best chance of defeating Labour – the sort of implicit alliance-which-can-never-speak-its-name
which a first past the post system encourages parties to pursue. And certainly it is true that there are some
seats which could be won by Plaid if the opposition to Labour was not split,
and others which could be won by the Tories if the opposition to Labour weren’t
split.
But even if the
implicit appeal for unity behind the strongest non-Labour candidate were to be
formalised and effective, the idea that either of those parties can emerge as a
clear winner based on such an approach seems fanciful to me. There is a hard-core Tory vote and a
hard-core nationalist vote; I doubt that either could be persuaded to vote for
the other, even if there were to be an electoral alliance between the two. Even if such a strategy were to be successful
for either or both in the constituency part of the election, the likely result
is that Labour would then start to win seats on the lists – in terms of an end
to Labour hegemony, the best that looks achievable to me is three roughly equal
groups in the Assembly. The only
non-Labour route forward from there is precisely the sort of coalition which
Plaid has definitively ruled out.
There are two
other aspects to the strategy being pursued by both the main opposition parties
at present as well. The first is that it
is, in essence, a negative approach, characterised more by being not-Labour
than by anything else. The second is
that the default position of both seems to be “one more heave”; the new dawn is
always going break at the ‘next’ election, which justifies continuing along the
same path. I’ve been there; I know how
easy it is to fall into that way of thinking.
Whilst it’s
easy to blame the voting system or a split opposition (both of them important
factors), we must be careful not to lose sight of the real reason for Labour’s
continued hegemony in elections in Wales – at its simplest: more people vote
for them than vote for any other party.
And given the unlikelihood, as discussed yesterday, of any change to the
electoral system, then for as long as people continue to vote as they do,
Labour hegemony will continue. An
occasional breakthrough here or there won’t change that, and may even be
counter-productive if it serves to encourage the continuation of current
strategies.
There can, of
course, be no certainty that any alternative strategy would produce a
significantly different result; but that’s not much of a reason for carrying on
as at present. As Einstein never
actually said, continuing to do the same thing in expectation of a different outcome
is a form of madness.
What is the
alternative? Offering a different future
rather than simply a better-managed future; offering a positive reason to support
that alternative rather than just a clichéd critique of the status quo;
inspiring Wales to be what it can be rather than what it is – I believe all of
these to be at least a part of the answer, but any such project has to be seen
as the long term project as which it used to be seen rather than simply an
electoral tactic over a single five year term.
But as things
currently stand the question remains - why would anyone expect the voters to be
motivated to make a change of seismic proportions by the prospect of a mere
change of management?
6 comments:
Entirely agree.
But it might be that the UKIP presence in the Assembly forces some changes upon us all, political parties included.
Let's hope and let's see.
Spot on, yet there’s no sign any party understands those facts or is willing to take risks to break the stale status quo.
Even Leanne Wood’s triumph in the Rhondda is likely to be pyrrhic unless she changes her steady as we go leadership. If you were a betting man you’d put your money on a Labour win in the Rhondda in 2021.
Welsh politics isn’t just boring and uninspiring but now with UKIP now creating hell and havoc, I’m left asking will the Welsh Assembly survive 5 years of farce, lack of delivery, wasting money and indifference?
Got your thinking cap on John when you state what a rotten system prevails in the Senedd because of the proportional representation system.
However, you seem to have given up hope as to what could change this situation in the future. I believe that the reason Labour have remained in power for 17 years is due to the fact that they manipulate the proportional voting system as an excuse for not carrying out their manifesto commitments and promising the 'jam' tomorrow. The obvious answer would be first past the post only to expose them
Do you think that the impending reduction in the number of Westminster constituencies to 29 will bring the issue of voting system back to the table?
Anon 08:55
The logic is certainly that it should; but the issue has nothing to do with logic, it's all about politics. Once the new Wales Bill has been passed, the matter will be one for the Assembly, and I se no likelihood that the (Labour) turkeys will be in any rush to vote for Christmas.
Should Wales use STV voting system similar to Northern Ireland, then H'dnot system for the cabinet(executive in NI). Or is it too complicated for us in GB!! (The Irish aren't thick!!)
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