Brexit was
never about controlling immigration – but it is now.
I don’t simply
mean that immigration wasn’t the subject on the ballot paper (although it
wasn’t), I mean that it wasn’t the driving force of those arguing for Brexit
(in most cases anyway). It might well
have been the main argument they used to win the referendum, but that’s a
different question.
Looking back at
the statements of some of the leading Brexiteers, they started out being quite
positive about the economic benefits of migration, almost seeing it as a
peripheral issue. But it became clear
that they were losing the economic argument, so they fell back on the argument
that had most leverage with the target electorate. It was a cynical ploy, of course; but it
worked. There was a large undercurrent
of opposition to immigration, and that was effectively marshalled to support an
entirely different objective.
It matters
little that many of those opposed to immigration were more opposed to non-EU
immigration than EU migration (there’s an obvious racist element involved in
that), or that leaving the EU could have no impact on that non-EU immigration. The Brexiteers successfully conflated two
very different issues and ended up winning a majority on the back of that
tactic.
It’s then that
the problems really started. Most of
them never expected to win, and some of them, at least, seemed not really to
have wanted to win. The UKIP brigade
did, of course, along with the more extreme elements of the Tory Party; but for
many in the Tory Party it was more about resolving the internal politics of their
party than about the future of the UK.
However, win
they did, albeit narrowly, and in the process of pulling that off they created
a wholly unrealistic expectation that the UK could retain the economic benefits
of membership whilst ending freedom of movement. And having encouraged the genie of
immigration control out of the bottle, they now find themselves in a position
where they are afraid not to deliver on the promises made (even if those
expected to do the delivering weren’t the ones who made the promises).
So, although
controlling immigration really wasn’t the central driver for most of these
seeking the exit door, fear of voter reaction to any failure to meet the
expectations raised has now become the prime driver for those tasked with
delivery. That sets a context for
everything else.
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