Insofar as there
is a discernible strategy behind the Prime Minister’s continuing refusal to
rule out a ‘no-deal’ Brexit, it seems to be aimed at (a) convincing opponents
of Brexit that her deal is better than the alternative, and (b) convincing the
EU27 that she’s really, really serious about this, in the hope that they will
cave in and throw the Irish (north and south) under a bus to give her what her
own party’s extremists want.
The first problem
with this, to date, has been that few people believe that she is really mad
enough to do it. Apart from a few
swivel-eyed ideologues in her own party no-one seriously believes that no deal
will be anything other than a disaster in the short to medium term, which means
that both opponents of Brexit and the EU27 have had considerable difficulty in
taking her seriously. It hasn’t helped
that there is clearly no parliamentary majority for taking such a step – and probably
no majority in her cabinet. Hiring a ferry company with no
ships didn’t exactly help her credibility either.
I have a feeling,
though, that perceptions might be changing.
A government prepared to waste billions of pounds on preparations for
something which they claim they’re trying to avoid is not a government in control
of its senses. And when we learn that
the military are stockpiling
supplies on military bases at home and abroad and that the government is
actively considering
imposing martial law, it might be time to consider the possibility that she
really is that mad, and it isn’t just a pretence.
That brings us,
though, to the second problem with her ‘strategy’. Supposing, just for a moment, that she
succeeds in convincing everyone that she is mad enough to do it, why exactly
would that make the EU27 decide to get rid of the backstop? When dealing with someone prepared to renege
on the UK’s treaty obligations, unilaterally break any agreement made, and lead
her country into complete and utter chaos, surely the most rational response is
not ‘let’s just give her what she wants’, but ‘there’s no point whatsoever in
negotiating with someone like that’?
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2 comments:
I suspect most people in Wales don't really care much for the wishes of those in Northern Ireland. Just as those here in North Wales don't much care for the wishes of those in South Wales.
Majority voting, duty of protection, civilised humanity and common sense have always been key aspects of any decision making in the UK.
Fear not, I suspect such will prevail long after you and I have given up the ghost.
I can agree with your "I suspect most people in Wales don't really care much for the wishes of those in Northern Ireland.". Opinion polls seem to suggest that lack of interest or concern is widespread. Whether that's healthy or not is another question entirely.
"Majority voting, duty of protection, civilised humanity and common sense have always been key aspects of any decision making in the UK." Really? Your evidence for this is what, exactly?
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