There are,
however, two important factors to consider, and unless both of those apply,
then the argument will only ever have any traction with those who are already
minded to vote for Plaid. There is a danger
that it will be a case of preaching to the converted.
The first of
those factors is this: are voters sufficiently convinced that being left behind
is necessarily a bad idea? Much as I’d like
that to be the case, I’m not convinced that it is. Yes, I know that opinion polls tell us
regularly that there is a widespread feeling that Wales should have parity with
Scotland, but they don’t tell us how strongly that view is felt. In particular, they don’t tell us whether, or
to what extent, that widespread view is one of the top factors in deciding how
people will vote.
In the absence
of hard data on that, we can only guess, based on our own prejudices and what
people around us think and say. And my
personal view is that, much as I’d like to believe otherwise, it isn’t a top
issue for most, and there’s some wishful thinking behind the assumption that it
is.
The second
factor is this: even supposing that the support for parity with Scotland is a
strong motivating factor in deciding how to vote, is it sufficiently clear to
people that there is one clear option on the ballot paper which delivers that
result? Again, I fear that this is being
taken as read, when to those on the outside it is by no means as clear as they seem
to be assuming.
Wales is not
Scotland, as people are fond of reminding us.
We didn’t start in the same place, we haven’t got to the same place, and
we haven’t followed the same processes in between. Reading across from one country to the other
is always dangerous. But, having said
that, there is one clear difference which needs to be highlighted, and which
is, in my view, a significant factor in the very different electoral position
in the two countries in the run-up to the UK General Election.
In Scotland,
the voters have heard a clear and consistent message in support of independence
over decades, and that simply isn’t true in Wales. Particularly since the advent of the
Assembly, the Welsh case has been put intermittently at best, and Plaid has
often seemed to fear the issue. And it’s
only a year or two ago that the party told us that Wales was too poor to be
independent at present.
It’s only
possible to ride a wave if that wave exists; and the big question in adopting this
strategy is whether enough has been done to create the wave. Internal groupthink doesn’t necessarily come
to the same conclusion as a more objective analysis.
Posts
4 comments:
With latest opnion polls showing 40% of welsh voters backing for Labour, 25% the Tories and 14% UKIP, Plaid Cymru's messages isn't getting traction anywhere outside it's core vote, so your spot on.
Leanne Wood's appeal is limited, prime example was the biggest reaction on social media to her apperance on Question Time last week came from Scottish Yessers and English socialists, very little from Wales further proof the 7 way debates wont help Plaid Cymru's anti austerity message either.
Sadly Wales will never be independent unlike Scotland but it's too late to replace Plaid Cymru with a party that will campaign for independence.
"Wales will never be independent" - 'never' is a bigger word than it appears to be. I'm not that pessimistic - just not terribly sure about the route at this stage.
Personally I think its curtains for Wales as a country.
Basically, we are an English region with a small minortiy of people who speak Welsh and a small minority who don't speak Welsh but are engaged with a distinct Welsh discourse.
We'll never be indy because the English in Wales will never vote for it. Some individuals will but as a community they won't. They won't because, frankly, they see no need for it. They enjoy the status quo. Wales being 'left behind' means nothing to them because they don't see Wales as a nation.
I'm coming to the connclusion that Labour and the British state has won. I've wasted my life trying to revive a language. I'd be better off having left Wales for a better job and life style and not burdened my children with this rubbish country. The irony is, had I left everyone would be praising me on being successful.
It's over. This is what it feels like to be Crimean Tatar, Tibetian or Sorbian. We've just missed the historic milestones in the C19th and early C20th. There's nothing we can do about it now. The British state, Labourism, British capitalism and English language are stronger than us.
Ar Ben
Anon 13:43 - I think your pessimism is misplaced and more than a tad melodramatic. That said, I can't be sure what the future holds so your apocalyptic vision may yet come to pass. However, to suggest our current position is anything like as difficult as the three other peoples to whom you refer is, with all due respect, ridiculous.
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