That Nigel Farage
hates the EU and sees it as some sort of evil dictatorship which enslaves its
member states is hardly news. He blames the EU for almost everything that is
wrong in the world. Most recently that extends to being part, along with NATO,
of what provoked the Russians into invading Ukraine by daring to expand what Farage
sees as the EU’s empire into parts of Europe which Russia thought in some way
belonged in its sphere of influence. The choice of words is important, though:
what Farage sees as EU-driven expansion to incorporate more countries will be
seen by others as a case of states which have newly regained their independence
choosing their own future. Whilst there’s no doubt that the existing members of
both the EU and NATO were keen to draw countries in the east of Europe into
their ranks, agency ultimately lay with those new members in the first place,
not with the EU/ NATO. Those states were, to put it another way, exercising
precisely that national sovereignty which is, apparently, so important to
Farage, just in a way of which he does not approve. It’s legitimate to question
whether they were making the right/ best choices – especially so in regard to
the military alliance rather than the primarily economic and political one –
but not whether they had the right to make them.
If the alternative
was to avoid ‘provoking’ Putin, that would imply either that the states
concerned agreed never to seek EU/ NATO membership, or that the EU/ NATO
declined to accept them. Or even a bit of both. But there is a corollary to
that – it would also mean that those states agreed to accept the effective
political, economic and military dominance of Russia over them for the
foreseeable future. In other words, Farage seems to see it as ‘better’ that
those states cede a degree of sovereignty involuntarily to Russia than that
they voluntarily share some of their sovereignty with others. Superficially,
his demand for absolute sovereignty for the UK whilst limiting the sovereignty
of countries to which Russia believes it has a right looks inconsistent. But it
really isn’t: English nationalist exceptionalism has long held that some
countries are more equal than others. And it isn’t only English nationalists –
Farage is just invoking the same attitudes which led to the Munich agreement or
the Yalta Conference, where European ‘great powers’ thought that they had the
right to dismember and determine the future of lesser states over the heads of
the people who lived there.
Whether EU/ NATO
expansion did actually provoke Putin is another question entirely. He has
certainly said that it was a factor, and it’s not hard to see why expanding the
territory covered by NATO in particular up to the Russian borders could look
like a threat, but a man who believes that large swathes of Europe historically
belong to Russia – and that Ukrainians are just Russians speaking a strange
dialect – could always have found another excuse to justify fulfilling his
dream of reviving the Russian empire at some point. Wars are rarely caused by a
single factor or event, and interpreting that expansion as a potential future
threat still doesn’t justify launching a war against a neighbouring country.
But raising the
question of whether NATO really did pose a threat to Russia does mean that
Farage has gone to the very heart of the debate about the role of ‘defence’ in
the modern world, even if almost certainly unwittingly. The nub of the argument
is this: do armed blocs act as a deterrent or a threat; do they make war more,
or less, likely? Specifically, if most of the former Warsaw Pact countries had
not chosen to join NATO, would Putin have been more likely, or less likely, to
seek to annexe all or part of Ukraine? The answer is essentially unknowable,
which probably helps to explain the absolute certainty which people bring to
the table when the issue is debated. Those who would have us spend ever more on
armaments argue that it’s better to be safe than sorry, but it’s entirely
possible that what they see as being ‘safe’ is actually the direct opposite if
it makes it more likely that those who are supposed to be ‘deterred’ feel so
threatened that they decide to take the risk of striking first.
What we do know,
with a reasonable degree of certainty, is that using Earth’s finite resources
to build ever more weapons makes those resources unavailable for other aims,
and also that the long term future of all of us depends on achieving a degree
of civilisation which recognises the need to share and co-operate in the way we
use the Earth’s resources. Somehow, I don’t think any of that was in Farage’s
mind when he opened his mouth.