Equality and equity are not the same thing

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This week’s speech by Plaid leader Rhun ap Iorwerth has been presented by some as a move “…away from the emphasis on future independence that became predominant during the leadership of his predecessor”. Maybe; at first reading the words certainly give the impression of a leader and a party determined to improve the position of Wales within current structures rather than one committed to changing those structures. However, given that two of the five points in the plan ('Scrap the Barnett formula and enshrine into law an Economic Fairness (Wales) Bill to rebalance the wealth of the UK'; and 'Give Wales the ability to set its own tax bands and rates') depend completely on legislation at Westminster which Plaid acting alone has no hope whatsoever of delivering, and which neither potential future UK government shows any inclination to deliver, it sounds like a way of emphasising the weakness of devolution as much as working within its constraints. And what is that, if not an argument for independence?

Whatever, there was nothing with which I could disagree in four of the five points. However, the fourth point of the five point plan concerned me rather more. “Bring forward legislation that ensures an equal share of public spending across Wales” is entirely within the powers of the Senedd (at least, insofar as it relates to Welsh Government expenditure – UK expenditure is, again, outside of that remit), but is potentially something of a double-edged sword. There is – in the speech as reported at least – a certain lack of detail. Is this to be based on spending per head (in which case, the lion’s share will inevitably continue to go to the south east)? Over what time period would it apply – per annum, per decade? If it’s tied to annual spending, that’s a major obstacle to large localised projects.

And what about the entirely valid critique of the Barnett formula (that it doesn’t take account of need): isn’t there a danger here of replicating that approach within Wales? Perhaps the intention is to talk about an ‘equitable’ share of spending rather than an ‘equal’ share. It’s a harder concept to explain, and it isn’t such a simple sound bite, but it is what Wales actually needs. Given the historic under-investment in parts of the country, any attempt at ‘levelling up’ necessarily requires a deliberately unequal pattern of spending if cash is to be directed at the areas of lowest GDP per head, for instance. It is, of course, precisely that requirement (to redirect spending from the wealthiest areas to the poorest) which has been the rock on which the Tory government’s commitment to ‘levelling up’ has foundered. It might have gone down well in the so-called ‘red wall’, but it went down badly in Tunbridge Wells. In Welsh terms, diverting resources to Gwynedd might go down well in the north and maybe not so well in Cardiff, but that's not a good enough reason not to do it.

It is not enough to talk – as Labour in England are doing, for instance – about ‘growth’ as the magic ingredient which resolves the problem. A rising tide, as the saying goes, does indeed lift all boats, but it doesn’t change the relative size of those boats. An uneven distribution of wealth and opportunity is never going to be solved by increasing the levels of wealth and opportunity for everyone; that requires a redistributive element as well. There is plenty of scope within the other four points of the plan for there to be a plan for redistribution across Wales; but a target of ‘equalising’ spending will undermine that. We need equity, not equality.