I’m struggling to understand the process
of ‘logic’ by which the Tories have selected
their disgraced former MP for Brecon and Radnor to be the candidate in the upcoming
by-election. It’s clear that he still
doesn’t understand why forging documents which purport to have been issued by someone
else can be wrong, and it looks as though local Tories are prepared to overlook
the crime as well. I think they’re wrong
on that, but I suppose there’s something to be said for loyalty to their man.
But it’s the politics of it that I don’t
get. With an electorate of some 52,000,
and a likely by-election turnout of only around 60% based on other by-elections,
there will be around 30-35,000 votes cast.
10,000 of those have already declared they want him out – and given that
they had to make the effort to go and sign the recall petition, it’s probable
that these are electors who will actually vote in the by-election. So they know
that one third of those voting are against him from the outset. Nigel Farage plc have already announced that
they will be standing and are likely to take a significant proportion of
pro-Brexit Tory voters, and they are also facing the Lib Dems who are – largely
because of Brexit – on a roll and have held the seat before.
For a party to choose a candidate who’s been
ejected from the seat due to dishonesty looks suicidal to me. Perhaps they simply couldn’t find anyone else
‘brave’ enough (in the Yes, Minister sense of the word) to attempt it in the
circumstances.
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1 comment:
It seems that Conservative HQ in London were very keen on Mr Davies standing again.
The seat will undoubtedly be lost - probably to the Lib Dems. In that case, they can then blame the candidate - not the message, not the Party, nor Boris nor Brexit.
Mr Davies will be the 'fall guy'. Simples!
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