Taking 'brave' decisions

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I’m struggling to understand the process of ‘logic’ by which the Tories have selected their disgraced former MP for Brecon and Radnor to be the candidate in the upcoming by-election.  It’s clear that he still doesn’t understand why forging documents which purport to have been issued by someone else can be wrong, and it looks as though local Tories are prepared to overlook the crime as well.  I think they’re wrong on that, but I suppose there’s something to be said for loyalty to their man.

But it’s the politics of it that I don’t get.  With an electorate of some 52,000, and a likely by-election turnout of only around 60% based on other by-elections, there will be around 30-35,000 votes cast.  10,000 of those have already declared they want him out – and given that they had to make the effort to go and sign the recall petition, it’s probable that these are electors who will actually vote in the by-election.  So they know that one third of those voting are against him from the outset.  Nigel Farage plc have already announced that they will be standing and are likely to take a significant proportion of pro-Brexit Tory voters, and they are also facing the Lib Dems who are – largely because of Brexit – on a roll and have held the seat before. 

For a party to choose a candidate who’s been ejected from the seat due to dishonesty looks suicidal to me.  Perhaps they simply couldn’t find anyone else ‘brave’ enough (in the Yes, Minister sense of the word) to attempt it in the circumstances.