Rights which can't be exercised aren't rights at all

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Whilst he hasn’t exactly been converted to the cause of independence, statements made this week by former First Minister Carwyn Jones are certainly a step forward in terms of the debate which we need to have.  And there is much in what he says with which I can readily agree.

Firstly, there’s nothing wrong or unpatriotic about believing that Wales might actually be better off economically not being independent.  It’s a conclusion with which I profoundly disagree and it ignores the non-economic arguments about accepting responsibility for managing our own destiny, but there’s nothing anti-Welsh or unpatriotic about it.  But the mere recognition that the choice exists and that there is scope for debate about whether or not we should choose it is a significant change, and a welcome one.

And secondly, I agree with him about the difficulties (post-Brexit) associated with the idea that an independent Wales could negotiate its own deal with the EU, whether it chose membership or not.  He is absolutely right, in my view, when he says that "There's very little point in having, shall we say, market access to the single market and finding we can't export to England."  Whether we like it or not, the facts of history and geography mean that the economy in Wales has developed in a way which makes it something of an appendage of England, and breaking that economic union would be a bigger shock for Wales than breaking the union between the UK and the EU. 

Within the EU, ‘independence’ (defined as that status enjoyed by all member states) within a single market where the trading arrangements with our largest markets remain unchanged is a comparatively easy state to achieve.  Yes, of course, there’s a lot of negotiation required in terms of splitting the UK’s representation in various bodies, agreeing budgetary contributions etc.  But it’s a conceptually simple process which can be achieved without major economic shock, precisely because it would not create a separate economic jurisdiction.

To achieve the same level of ‘independence’ in post-Brexit UK is also conceptually quite simple, as long as the trading arrangements with our largest markets remain unchanged.  In effect, however, that requires continued regulatory alignment with England for the foreseeable future; the ability to escape that alignment (if it were ever agreed to be a desirable objective) would depend on a long term refocussing of the Welsh economy which would be ‘challenging’ to say the least.  For an ‘independent’ Wales, in such a scenario, negotiating its own trade deals with the EU or anyone else raises all the same issues over border controls between England and Wales as leaving the EU does in respect of Ireland, and that is, surely, all that the former First Minister is saying.

There are some independentistas who see the second scenario as being better than the first, because it represents a greater degree of ‘independence’.  And it’s true that the second scenario, unlike the first, would give Wales the right to negotiate its own trading arrangements with the rest of the world.  But a ‘right’ which exists de jure but which it is impossible to exercise de facto isn’t much of a right at all; the reality is that our trading arrangements would be largely determined by the whim of our neighbour who would be under no obligation at all even to consult us, whereas within the EU we would have an equal seat at the table.

The biggest problem with ‘independence’ isn’t about its achievability or practicality; it’s about defining what it means.  In an interconnected world, it cannot mean what it used to mean two centuries ago, not even for a medium-sized state like the UK (something which the Brexiteers are still struggling to comprehend).  The level of ‘independence’ enjoyed by Eire, Malta and Latvia, coupled with a seat at the table, is enough for them, and should be enough for Wales too.  And in practical – if not strictly constitutional terms – it looks a lot more like ‘independence’ than being tightly tied to England in any imaginable post-Brexit scenario.