Mathematics and politics

Tweet I’m not over-impressed by the response of either Carwyn Jones or Kirsty Williams to Plaid’s claim that Wales would have £1.2bn extra per year if funded on the same basis of Scotland.  Calling it a bizarre figure and claiming not to understand where it has come from are not exactly grow-up responses.  Comparing it with the figure of £300m arrived at by the Holtham Commission is simply not comparing like for like; the figures are the result of calculating two very different things.

The Holtham Commission set out to calculate by how much Wales was losing out as a result of the inbuilt unfairness of the Barnett formula, and came up with a figure of around £300m a year.  There’s a sense in which it’s a ‘snapshot’ figure, and of course, it can change over time.  It’s the result of calculations based on a range of factors which are not themselves constant, but it’s a figure which is widely-accepted, and an entirely reasonable basis for debating change to the underlying formula to come up with a needs-based distribution.

The figure of £1.2bn, however, is something very different.  Scotland is, it is generally accepted, over-funded compared to what the situation would be under a needs-based formula, but there is nothing inherently unreasonable about estimating how much better off Wales would be if we were over-funded in the same way as Scotland.  As a mathematical exercise, it’s an interesting and novel way of highlighting the extent of the unfairness built into the system. 

I’m rather less sure about the politics than the mathematics, though.  On what basis is it reasonable for any politician to argue that Wales should be over-funded just because Scotland is?  Asking for a sum in excess of a needs-based share is a huge jump from a wholly reasonable demand for fairness.  And whilst the facts that Scotland gets more than it should while Wales gets less might, in mathematical terms, be just two different variables in the same equation, giving attention to the Scottish part rather than the Welsh part seems a strange approach, more likely to persuade people of the need for a downward revision in Scotland than an upward one here.

Perhaps that’s the intention.  It is natural for those getting a bigger share of the cake than an assessment of needs would determine to seek to protect their special treatment; and there is always scope for considerable debate about how need is defined and measured.  And those are the two big problems which need to be addressed in any reform of Barnett.  But they do need to be tackled, and any revision to the formula will inevitably mean a reduction in Scottish over-funding, which is precisely why the parties at Westminster are avoiding the question.  From a Welsh perspective, however, and for as long as the devolved administrations are funded through block grants, I really can’t see any basis on which we can reasonably demand more than our fair share.