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And I always take very seriously anything the editor of the Carmarthen Journal, Robert Lloyd, says, especially when he says it in his weekly 'Clecs' column. I'd put in a link to the column, but he doesn't include it in the online edition of the Journal (come on, Robert, don't be so shy!). I suppose it helps increase sales of the paper version though.
It seems that the local Tory candidate is amongst those who can't get enough as well (welcome Simon, yes, you get another mention). He has told the Journal that he welcomes my prediction of a Tory victory in England in the coming General Election. I'm not sure he read and understood the whole piece though, so I'll just reiterate some of the key points.
I currently expect the English Conservative Party to win a majority of seats in England at the next General election, and to win a big enough majority in England to have an overall majority in the Westminster Parliament. Indeed, whilst not everyone is saying that out loud, I know of few people outside the Labour Party (and not a lot inside the party either) who seriously believe that they have any chance of recovering their position. And I don't think that I'd be very credible as a politician if I tried to deny what looks at the moment like an inevitable outcome.
But, and this is a very big but, I also expect the English Conservative Party to be once more rejected in Wales, as it has been in every single election since the universal franchise. And, although the Tories won't admit it, they know this too. Wales needs to be protected from the result – a doctrinaire Tory government in England imposing its will on Wales despite a lack of popular support.
So, one of the key questions which people in Wales will have to answer in the election, whenever it comes, is this: "If you know that Wales isn't going to vote Tory, but England is, and you're going to have a Tory government whether you like it or not, who will best stand up for the interests of Wales over the next five years?" The answer is not yet another Labour-Tory MP, is it?
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3 comments:
Right again John in your analysis.
The Tories will win in England, no doubt about it, but will not make any impression on Scotland and Wales, though the seats the Tories now have in Wales will probably be held (let Plaid disprove this!) and Glyn Davies will win in Montgomery, ousting the very liberal hedonist Lembit Opik.
The fact of a Conservative government may well assist the cause of independence, by driving Welsh electors towards the nationalist viewpoint and inducing former Labour supporters to jump ship to the only radical left alternative. The unions may follow.
"If you know that Wales isn't going to vote Tory, but England is, and you're going to have a Tory government whether you like it or not, who will best stand up for the interests of Wales over the next five years?" The answer is not yet another Labour-Tory MP, is it?
But during the last Tory Government Wales benefited from having a friend in Syr Wyn Roberts - who gave us S4C and the Welsh Language Act.
If a Tory Government is (by your prophecy) inevitable, won't we be best served by friends of Wales inside the tent P***ing out, - Glyn Davies, Gutto Bebb, David Jones, etc, rather than having Plaid MP's who are so far away from the center of influence that their p*** won't even reach the tent, never mind cause a stink on the inside?
Anon 2:10,
Your idea of 'friends' of Wales doesn't exactly match my definition. Syr Wyn didn't 'give us' S4C; it was extracted from the government by action and agitation within Wales, not least by Gwynfor. And it's a mistake to pick out any one action which you define as 'good', and then ignore all the rest, such as the way in which our health service was turned into a market place on the basis of dogma.
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