Massaging the picture

Tweet Peter Black shows a neat little graphic on his blog comparing the actual level of spending cuts being made by the coalition government with the level of cuts pledged by the various parties in advance.  It is, like so many Lib Dem graphics, simple, clear, effective - and utterly misleading.

The first way in which it misleads is by starting the scale at around £75billion.  Shortening the scale in this way gives the impression that the difference between the figures is much larger than is actually the case.  A scale which started at zero would give quite a different impression - it would show all the figures tightly bunched together around one point on the scale.

And if the figures being compared were those for total expenditure rather than simply the extent to which that expenditure is being reduced, then the bunching effect would be even more pronounced.

The second way in which it misleads is that it gives the impression - without actually saying so - that because the actual total is closer to the Lib Dems pledges than to the Tories' pledges, then the Lib Dems can take the credit.  That would be a wrong conclusion on two counts.  

The first count is that the actual figure isn't what the government was actually aiming it - it's come out lower than planned because the government has got its figures wrong, not because the Lib Dems have been clever and influential.  And the second count is that the reason that the government has got it wrong is because their underlying assumption - that the private sector would take up any slack - has been proved to be utterly wrong.  In effect, the government is simply switching public expenditure from productive - paying people to do things - to unproductive - paying the same people to do nothing.

There are two lessons which can be drawn, however.  The first is that the debate about different levels of public expenditure is concentrated - in London, just like in Cardiff - on a very narrow range, with very small differences being greatly exaggerated.

And the second is that government can't really control either the economy or the total level of public expenditure to the extent that they claim.  (Chris Dillow had a good piece yesterday about some of the reasons that they claim more influence than they actually have.)

Spin and fancy graphics are no substitute for substance.

Self-determination is a right

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According to international law, all nations have the right to decide for themselves whether, and to what extent, they should exercise sovereignty directly, share that sovereignty with others, or even completely subsume themselves in another entity.  The ‘right’ to self-determination does not mandate any nation to use that right in any particular way.

But international law does not attempt to define what a ‘nation’ actually is.  That’s no surprise; many of those of us who have thought long and hard about what constitutes a ‘nation’ would also struggle to provide a clear, unambiguous, and objective definition.  What is clear, however, is that whatever a ‘nation’ is, it has the right to determine its own status in the world without external compulsion or interference.

In posting today about the possible attempt by the UK Government to hi-jack the independence referendum in Scotland, Peter Black makes the sweeping statement that “Scotland is not in a position to decide its own fate”.  And insisting, as he does, that “the consent of the rest of the United Kingdom will be necessary for any change” runs directly counter to the principle that self-determination can be exercised without external interference.

It seems that the Lib Dems either don’t accept international law, or else don’t agree that Scotland is a nation.  I can’t see any other rationale for making such statements.  Worse, the statements seem to be based on the highly illiberal premise that sovereignty belongs to the centre rather than the people.

There are arguments both for and against independence, whether we’re talking about Scotland or Wales.  And it is perfectly proper that people put those arguments to the people of Scotland in advance of their referendum, so that the people have the opportunity to make an informed decision on their own future.  But arguing that they have no right to make their own decision, or trying to take control of the referendum process is not only wrong, it’s also likely to be self-defeating.

Trailing Scotland

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The momentum behind the SNP’s drive towards Scottish independence shows no sign of flagging any time soon.  Quite the reverse, it seems to be growing.  And the gulf between what is happening in Scotland and what is happening in Wales is large and increasing.

Wales isn’t Scotland of course.  At times in the 60s and 70s it seemed that the progress of the two nations was on parallel paths, but the reality was that Scotland always started ahead, because of the different nature of the relationship with the rest of the UK, and the continued existence of national institutions north of the border where the equivalent institutions in Wales were organised on an EnglandandWales basis.

And whilst it’s important not to overstate the influence of individual personalities on politics, having a leader who not only believes in the aims of his party but also has the confidence and ability to articulate them with conviction has given the SNP a huge advantage over the other parties in Scottish elections.

I don’t know whether the Scots will actually vote for independence at the end of it, although I have a feeling that it will be a two-stage process – devo-max now, and independence at some point down the line.  The drive towards independence is being ably assisted by a divided opposition, which seems unable to put together any coherent positive argument for the union.  And doesn’t even seem to want to try – but believing that your case is so obvious and overwhelming that it doesn’t even need to be put looks to me like a losing strategy.

In that respect – the lack of a coherent argument for continuing the union – there is still a parallel in Wales.  With support for the independence option languishing at a low level, and the case for independence rarely being made, one could excuse the unionists here for thinking that there is no urgency to fill the gap.  That would be a mistake though; although the support for Scottish independence is now in the ascendant, it’s not that long ago that it, too, was at quite a low level.

Today’s letter in the Western Mail (available by scrolling down here) from David Melding shows that one defender of the union, at least, recognises the danger.  Not for the first time, he proposes a formal federal constitution as a means of preserving the idea of a United Kingdom whilst also strengthening the devolved bodies within the union.  I think he’s probably right; if I wanted to put forward the option most likely to preserve the union at this point, federalism is what I’d push, too.

He also, at least – and unusually for a Conservative – recognises that sovereignty belongs to the people, and if they decide to exercise it, then that is their right.  It puts him ahead of some others, who seem to believe that the people of England and Wales have some sort of a right to a veto on what Scotland decides.

But his plan will only work, as he identifies, if those in favour of the union come together and unite around it.  And that’s where his argument falls down.  His letter was in response to an article last week by Mick Antoniw, which Melding describes as ‘thoughtful’.  That wasn’t exactly my take on it.  I thought that it started out with too much stereotyping, more of an attempt to bash political opponents than engage in the more mature type of political discourse which is typical of Melding himself.  And it was more of a rallying call to the Labour Party than anything else.

The idea that the unionist parties can ever come together to agree a common response to developments seems to me to be unlikely for as long as they believe that they can individually gain more electorally by simply being negative.  David Melding seems to be one of the few who believe that politics ought actually to debate substance rather than merely score points and pursue power.  That makes him something of a lone voice on the unionist side; and the fact that he is so unusual hands the potential to the nationalist side to win the argument.

What Alex Salmond and the SNP have shown is that a political movement which seeks and exercises power can still, if it has the will, the ability, the imagination, and the confidence, articulate a wider vision and win people over to supporting that vision.  Vision and pragmatism don’t have to be alternatives; they can co-exist.  It's a lesson we need to relearn in Wales.