As the dust settles
in Caerffili, there is widespread relief that the threatened victory for Reform
Ltd didn’t happen, despite what some of the polls suggested. But whether it
really signifies a victory for ‘progressive’ views over conservative ones is
rather harder to determine. One simplistic analysis I’ve seen suggests that
adding the Plaid, Green, Labour, and Lib Dem vote percentages together and
comparing that with the total of Reform Ltd, Tories and UKIP gives a ratio of 61%
to 38%, a very comfortable margin. (It’s not entirely clear where Gwlad
fits in this analysis, but at 0.3% of the vote, it’s hardly a significant factor.
Where the Lib Dems sit is another variable, it may depend on who you speak to
and whether there’s an ‘R’ in the month, but again, at 1.5% it’s not a huge
factor.)
Everything depends,
though, on whether those who voted for the Labour candidate can really be seen
as ‘progressively minded’ voters. On matters such as immigration, climate
change and economics, Sir Starmer’s Labour is moving ever closer to the Reform/Tory
position; in policy terms they don’t deserve to be included on the same side of
the balance as Plaid/ Green. If their 11% gets moved from one column into the
other, the result looks very different. Plaid and Green on 48.9% compared to Reform/Tory/UKIP/Labour
on 49.2% is no longer a victory of any sort, let alone a sweeping one.
We don’t know what
exactly happened to Labour’s traditional vote, but we can assume that some
stayed at home, rather than voting at all. Of the rest, the more ‘progressive’
elements may well have switched to Plaid as a block on Reform Ltd. But we also
know that there has been movement from Labour to Reform across the UK; there’s
no good reason to assume that some of that didn’t happen in Caerffili. Not all
Labour voters are as ‘progressive’ as myth and wishful thinking might suggest.
Those who were left are probably Labour’s hard core – ‘My party, right or wrong’
– and are, at the least, generally content to go along with Starmer. That gives
no reason to place them in the ‘progressive’ column.
There is a danger of
complacency – because Caerffili sent Reform Ltd packing, maybe they’re not the
threat many feared. But that complacency is based on an outdated and romantic
view of the average Welsh voter as inherently ‘left’ of the average English
voter. The views of Reform Ltd, whether expressed directly by them, or by the
Tory and Labour parties rushing to ape them, have taken root more than we might
care to admit. The danger hasn’t gone away.
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2 comments:
The new PR system that will operate in the election next May will I think play a huge role in determining the composition of the Senedd.
It seems to me from conversations I've had that it is little understood at the moment by many voters. Also a significant number of politicians and the politics media [especially England based] appear to be quite clueless as to the implications of the new system in terms of the results it will generate and that cooperation and compromise between parties will be near inevitable.
We've just had the very last Senedd by-election, as I understand the new system. Bit surprised when Plaid agreed to it. They won't be getting another success like this one because the opportunity has been signed away. Glad to be put right if I've got this wrong.
My great uncle Aneurin had very strong views on most things. He hated the Tories, but despised the Liberals (as was) because they were "neither one thing nor the other." I suspect that he would have thought much the same of what the Labour party has become, that they are now "neither one thing nor the other". It's debatable whether he would have switched to Plaid, and we can't ask him, but in Wales we are fortunate in having an alternative which is probably a lot more Labour than Labour itself. Add to that the disrespect shown to Wales by UK Labour politicians - HS2 consequentials, Crown Estates, imposition of local candidates and so on - I think that much of this will have registered with many if not most voters. As far as Mr Farage is concerned it may be a case of "fool me once [Brexit is waving hello] shame on you, fool me twice ... " Voters for the most part aren't as stupid as he would like.
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