In an attempt to
estimate how many technically advanced civilizations there are in the galaxy, astronomer
Frank Drake came up with the eponymous Drake Equation in
1961. It was intended to identify the factors which might be involved in determining
an answer, and its shortness and elegance betrays the complexity and difficulty
involved in assigning values to the assorted variables. For the
mathematically-minded, it also shows how a galaxy with an apparently enormous
number of stars can contain either a very low or a very high number of
civilizations – and of particular relevance here, it’s an illustration of how
the compound multiplication of low probabilities can rapidly reduce a large
probability into a small one.
Some Tories have
their own version of the equation (although they may not have realised that
fact themselves as yet) – we might call it the Boris Johnson Comeback Equation.
It sets out how their revered ex-leader might turn out to be their revered
future leader. It all depends on the assumptions we make about the numbers. To
pull off this feat, a number of things need to happen, each of which has a
finite and non-zero probability:
a) He needs to be accepted again as a suitable candidate by
his party, some of whom may have become a little wiser with the passage of time
b) He needs to find a Tory in a safe seat who is willing to
step aside in his favour (and ‘safe’ doesn’t have the meaning that it used to
have in the years B.J. (Before Johnson)
c) He then needs to win the subsequent by-election, during
which much of the attention will be on his past lies and failings
d) He needs to persuade his fellow MPs in the House of
Commons to back him as leader (despite the fact that it was they who deposed
him in the first place), or at least put him in second place so that the vote
goes to the party membership
e) He needs to win the backing of those party members.
Even if the
probability of all five individual factors is 90%, multiplying them together
using the formula:
Probability = abcde
gives as a
probability of only 60% for success; and 90% seems ‘generous’ for at least some
of those factors. For those in the Tory Party who have repeatedly shown
themselves to be mathematically challenged (including, of course, the man
himself), none of this is a problem. And, or so the theory goes, once back in
post he can elevate Nigel Farage to the Lords, appoint him as deputy PM and
Home Secretary, and call an election during which his famous campaigning skills
will see him sweep to victory over Labour.
Thos famous
campaigning skills include, of course, hiding
in a fridge to avoid reporters and refusing
to be interviewed by anyone who might ask him difficult questions. Whilst
it’s true that the Tories did win a general election under his leadership,
ascribing the victory entirely to the leader is a leap which ignores the fact
that the leader of the opposition was widely portrayed as unelectable, and that
the issue of the day was Brexit, in the time before a more realistic assessment
of the ‘benefits’ set in. There’s always a debate between two views of history –
the one sees the movement of social and political forces, whilst the other
concentrates on ‘Great Men’. Whilst Johnson clearly subscribes to the latter
view, the idea that he is one of them is a bit of a stretch, to say the least.
The suggestion that an election in which Johnson were the leader of the Tories
would or could do other than concentrate on his many proven failings and lies is
a strange one, particularly given the extent to which so many are disillusioned
with Brexit and closely associate it with Johnson and Farage. Has the Tory
Party become so utterly deranged that it would follow such a path? Opinions may
differ, but the fact that it can’t be entirely ruled out tells us a lot about
how far down the path to insanity they have travelled.
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