Leaving a vacuum is a mistake

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Conventional wisdom decrees that Labour lost the Uxbridge by-election because of the Ultra-Low Emission Zone (ULEZ), and Labour and the Conservatives alike have since been furiously back-pedalling on anything that looks like a commitment to halting climate change. I wonder, though, whether there is rather more nuance here. Did they, in fact, lose because people thought that the charge was going to affect them, and didn’t understand just how few vehicles were really going to be affected? It seems likely that the number of people who thought that it was going to affect them is considerably higher than the number actually going to be hit by the charge, and the Tories won by playing on that unjustified level of fear. None of that alters the fact than those most likely to be affected were those owning the oldest vehicles, and thus likely to be relatively less well-off, or that the scrappage scheme seems to have been inadequate. And the information about whether they would be affected or not was readily available, but depended on people seeking it out rather than being informed more directly.

The Welsh government may be putting themselves in a very similar position with the 20mph zones being widely introduced next month. Like ULEZ, this was a scheme initially supported by the Tories, but they have seen an opportunity to make mischief and attract support by now deciding to oppose it. Just as with ULEZ, the impact on people is likely to be much less than many are assuming, because of the large number of exceptions. And, just as with ULEZ, information on those exemptions is freely available (although in this case much harder to interpret; the website is far from being intuitive), but, again, people have to seek it out rather than being notified in a more direct fashion. The way the Tories are seeking to use the policy is simultaneously shameful and shameless, but they’re pushing at a door left open by the Welsh government. If a party devoid of principle or consistency decides to campaign in this way, playing on or exaggerating people’s fears, part of the responsibility, at least, falls on those whose woeful failure to communicate effectively what is happening has enabled the Tories’ innate dishonesty.

Given a choice of how to get from A to B, my choice is generally likely to be ‘as quickly as possible’: the ideal would be for Scotty to simply beam me from A to B in a few seconds. In the absence of Star Trek technology, there is always going to be a compromise between various factors, including (but not limited to) speed, safety and environmental impact. On balance, the Welsh government have probably got it about right, and can tweak it as necessary in the future if the need arises, but they are dismally failing to explain or persuade. That leaves a vacuum which is largely being filled by disinformation and distortion. And those are Tory specialities.