Given an infinite number of monkeys, an
infinite number of typewriters, and an infinite period of time, it is said that
one of the monkeys will at some point type out the complete works of
Shakespeare, in the same order as the bard himself wrote them, and using the
bard’s own spelling quirks. The usefulness of that knowledge is limited, but it
can help to understand the nature and scale of infinity.
We can, though, extrapolate the argument and
state, with a high degree of confidence, that given an infinite number of waves
of Covid and an infinite period of time, Boris Johnson would, at some point,
take the right decision at the right time in order to save lives and avoid
massive numbers of hospitalisations. In
practice, we don’t have an infinite period of time, or an infinite number of
waves (and if we did, they’d kill an infinite number of people anyway). We’ve
had two waves so far, and it’s clear that a third is coming: but just as one
would not expect even a solitary sonnet from three monkeys with three
typewriters in two years, the probability of three iterations in two years
being sufficient for Johnson to get the approach right is also diminishingly
small.
That helps to explain why experts in the field and those who understand probabilities are advising people to ignore what Johnson says about relaxing the lockdown rules and carry on as though the rules weren’t changing today. It’s sound advice. Like the example of the monkeys, it’s also capable of being extrapolated: based on his record to date, assuming that everything Johnson says is either untrue or unwise is likely to lead to better outcomes than taking his words seriously. The scientists are onto something here.
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2 comments:
You are being very harsh on monkeys in drawing that comparison. Monkeys have a far stronger sense of responsibility to their community whereas Boris is an adulterous chancer with minimal sense of responsibility or accountability.
I've always thought of Boris as a bit of a Bonobo
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