More of the same?

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In all sorts of ways, Brexit is an epoch-defining moment, whether it ends up happening or not.  Tied up in the debate is a whole series of issues about what it means to be Welsh, British or European, whether the future lies in international co-operation or competition, and whether the UK has adapted, or ever can adapt, to its diminished status in the world.  I am in no doubt that it is, in its very essence, an Anglo-British not-nationalist-at-all attempt to turn back the clock to an age when, from their perspective at least (even if not in reality), people knew their place, the world kow-towed before the might of Britannia, and this glorious little island stood united against its enemies (especially, of course, the dastardly Germans).  It is precisely because the project is of that nature that I oppose it; people who voted for this strange vision of a ‘great’ British past really should not be surprised that it is accompanied by blatant attempts to rebrand everything with the Union flag.  I’ve argued before that the choice facing us in Wales is not between the status quo and complete independence; it is between a gradual transition to independent member status in the EU and being stuck on a small off-shore island dominated by the Anglo-British not-nationalists-at-all.

Even if the big underlying questions referred to above aren’t really being discussed, they underpin the debate, and coupled with the utter incompetence of both the Prime Minister and the Leader of Her Majesty’s Loyal Opposition, the strain on those members of the two main political parties who possess a few brain cells between them has been intense, to the point where some have chosen to break away and form a new grouping.  Given the importance of this one issue, which will determine our future for a generation or more, if this was all just about Brexit, I’d be egging them on and hoping that more would follow them.  There are times when single-issue politics has a role to play, and this is such a time; if splintering the existing monolithic parties is an essential precondition to changing course, then so be it.  And I would, of course, give a more general welcome to anything which smashed the two-party politics which has dominated the UK for far too long, in which context a move to proportional representation is also essential.

But…  For all their fine words, I can’t help wondering how much of what drives them is a real desire for a change of direction and a change in the UK’s politics and how much is down to personal ambition or discontent with particular leaders at a particular point in time.  “Centrism” is paraded as though it is something inherently virtuous, neither one thing nor the other, whilst the Brexiteers on the one hand and Momentum on the other are presented as though they were dangerous extremists, despite the fact that (with the sole exception of Brexit) there is little in the policies of either which would be out of place in mainstream parties across Europe.  “Extremist” is just an insult; a label to avoid engaging with the substance of what others say.  And, at one level, it suits them all to play a game of pretending to be more different than they are in reality.

On any objective analysis, the UK has been dominated for the last 70 years by two broadly social democratic parties, the difference between which has mostly been of emphasis rather than of real substance.  Both support a capitalist economy, both support the existence of the NHS and the Welfare state (disagreements being limited to issues such as the scale and the role of the marketplace), both support the development and possession of weapons of mass destruction - the list is endless.  Minor disagreements are blown up into great issues of principle largely in order to differentiate between two very similar positions and world views.  We need change, we need to shake up the system, but do we really need yet another flavour of social democracy?  I think not.  If the unimaginatively-named Independent Group can be a movement for bringing some reality back into the Brexit debate instead of the Corbyn-May demand for the impossible, then all well and good.  If they can be a catalyst for electoral reform which opens out more future possibilities, then all power to their elbow.  But once those two issues are resolved there is no role or purpose for another party of ambitious politicians repeating the same old messages.