It has a ring of truth to it certainly; but it struck me also that there’s a certain degree of poetic justice here, because there’s a very real sense in which Labour a staring at a self-inflicted wound. For many years, Labour’s prime message seems to have been a twofold one: “The Tories are wicked and evil; we are not the Tories”. To an extent this has worked, and it’s probably been particularly effective in Wales given folk memories about the Conservatives.
It has a fatal flaw though: what it demonises is not what Tories believe or stand for, nor any particular policy or set of policies. Instead, it demonises the fact of “being a Tory”. Shorn of any substance or analysis, it works at the level of myth and prejudice, but it does not respond to the substance in any meaningful way. So, when another party called something completely different comes along, all of that taboo about supporting “the Tories” is worthless, even if the said new party shares the same fundamental beliefs.
Labour left this door open, all Farage did was walk through it.